(March 8, 2016 at 10:03 pm)Excited Penguin Wrote: You can find me any proof you like, it still doesn't make sense that probability helps you in that scenario. I will say it's all luck since you can't explain it.
As I already said, the fact that the moderator takes out all the bad variants but for one doesn't tell you anything about whether you made the right decision or not. Just the fact that he takes out all the other doors, doesn't mean that he made the unchosen left variant any more plausible than the one you already chose. And that's because no matter if you were wrong or right at first he was going to take out the same number of doors after you made your choice.
In some cases people refer to the 2/3 logic. That's bad logic. It's not 2/3 anymore because there's no three left. There are only two options left and so it's 50/50, not 25/75.
You are admitting, even bragging about, being ignorant.
I suggest you study probability because you really do not understand it.
Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
