(March 13, 2016 at 7:16 am)pool the great Wrote: Actually no, I'm pretty confident that I can defend my position with no problem.[...]
That's nice. You're still wrong. I think the problem and the solution has clearly been explained in this thread alone, so if you have any arguments - this would be the time to present them. But I won't be holding my breath, personally. Probability's a b*tch and using intuition when dealing with it is a bad idea. And mathematically - the correct solution is clear.
"The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one." - George Bernard Shaw
