(March 13, 2016 at 7:48 am)pool the great Wrote: Hey Rob, you do realize you could flip a coin and get heads a million times in a row but this doesn't raise your probability of getting heads next time around, right?
I totally agree with that, which is why I don't trust probability but for when a certain pattern is revealed. You're right, I was basically pressured into agreeing with them. I don't. I do realise that they have the right technical answer but this doesn't take away from the fact that for all they know they could switch and get it wrong to infinity. To assume that you will get it right 2/3 of the time because of switching is to assume that you're going to pick every door just as many times during a certain number of iterations of the same game, which is a ludicrous thing to assume. So again, I think it's misleading to think that probability can solve this problem, no matter what the evidence shows. This is logically inconsistent so the evidence must be pointing to something else entirely even if it does show them right. Wishful thinking = wishful results? I don't know.
