RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 8:53 am
(This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 8:54 am by ErGingerbreadMandude.)
(March 13, 2016 at 8:35 am)robvalue Wrote: What?
You're screwing with me. You must be. What is "statistical reasons"? Yes, the probability is in your favour if you switch. I don't know how much clearer I can make it.
Haha. OK fine, I'll leave you be then.
Tell you what rob, I'll explain it to you since you were patient enough to explain things to me before. But I suggest you read carefully.
Consider 5 tries.
First try you get car.
Second try you get car.
Third try you get car.
Fourth try you get goat.
Fifth try you get car.
Yes, the probability of you getting the car is higher in 'x' tries.
Now you decide to switch next time also because you got car most times when you decided to switch.
You choose to do this because of statistical reasons not because of probabilistic reasons. Because you look at the results and you understand that it is beneficial to switch in 'x' tries(emphasis on 'x' tries).
Now get this rob, you are in a show, you are given only 1 chance. How can you say that your chances of winning a car increases if you switch?
Yes, if there is 5 tries you get a car most times if you switch. But what if there is only 1 try?
Believing that you will get a car because you switched all the 5 times and will therefore get a car the next time is analogous to the situation where you get heads 1 million times after flipping a coin and believing that you will get a heads next time around too.
