RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 9:08 am
(This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 9:16 am by Mr.wizard.)
(March 13, 2016 at 8:51 am)Excited Penguin Wrote:(March 13, 2016 at 8:49 am)Mr.wizard Wrote: The probability does not change, if you use a pick and hold strategy you will win 1/3 of the time, if you use a pick and switch strategy you will win 2/3 of the time, it's that simple, no it does not guarantee you a car but it is in your best interest to switch mathematically.
I repeat myself, that would only be true if you knew for sure that no matter how many times the game is played, the number of times each door is picked will be the same, for instance 999999 times each.
I have no idea what you are trying to say, the probability is right, the math is right, I can't figure out what your problem is.
The number of times each door is opened is irrelevant, your choosing between a random choice of 1/3 and curated filtered choice at 2/3, every time the game is played. Somebody gave the example of 1 out of 100 doors, Monty opens 98 goats and re-offers you the choice, do you stick with your random 1/100 pick or switch to the filtered pick?
