RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 9:25 am
(This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 9:35 am by Mr.wizard.)
(March 13, 2016 at 9:08 am)pool the great Wrote: Roby, you win most times if you have more than one try and you decide to switch.
The conclusion is :
Therefore it is beneficial to switch given that you have more than a single try because you get more cars and less goats.
The conclusion is not :
Therefore it is beneficial to switch.
You don't have multiple tries in the question.
Are you seeing the fault in your logic?
Wrong, the math is still the same, you initially pick with a 1/3 random chance and then are re-offerd a filtered choice, mathematically it's in your best interest to switch whether you play once or a hundred times. Your always starting out at a guess from 1/3, meaning your chance is always 33% if you stay with your door.
