RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 11:10 am
(This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 11:13 am by IATIA.)
Even though mathematically, my odds have changed, in reality, they have not. because it is a two-step process with new information. If the two doors left were randomly swapped (or not), this would then give me a true 50/50 on the second choice, but as the doors have not swapped, the 50/50, though it may seem to be better odds, will not change what is behind the door I picked. The 50/50 will only apply if I change my mind, but because it is a 50/50 chance, I only have one choice, so it is not really 50/50. Basically, I have a 50/50 chance of being right after door #3 is opened, but I do not have a 50/50 choice.
You make people miserable and there's nothing they can do about it, just like god.
-- Homer Simpson
God has no place within these walls, just as facts have no place within organized religion.
-- Superintendent Chalmers
Science is like a blabbermouth who ruins a movie by telling you how it ends. There are some things we don't want to know. Important things.
-- Ned Flanders
Once something's been approved by the government, it's no longer immoral.
-- The Rev Lovejoy
-- Homer Simpson
God has no place within these walls, just as facts have no place within organized religion.
-- Superintendent Chalmers
Science is like a blabbermouth who ruins a movie by telling you how it ends. There are some things we don't want to know. Important things.
-- Ned Flanders
Once something's been approved by the government, it's no longer immoral.
-- The Rev Lovejoy
