(March 13, 2016 at 9:53 am)pool the great Wrote: Whether it is beneficial to switch or not depends entirely on whether you choose a goat first.
And after you choose a door the host opens up another door which has a goat behind it. Now your probability of having a goat behind the door you first chose is 50-50.
So you have a 50-50 chance of you getting a car if you switch when the host asks you to.
Whether you win is dependant on whether you choose a goat or a car on your first pick. There is a one out of three chance you will pick the car, and a two out of three chance you will pick one of the goats. If you stick with your first choice you win if you picked car on your first choice. If you switch, you win if you picked a goat on your first choice. So your odds are twice as good if you switch.
Yes you will still loose one third of the time.
If there is a god, I want to believe that there is a god. If there is not a god, I want to believe that there is no god.
