The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem

[Excited Penguin]

You would trust your instincts over an exact mathematical model? OK.

I don't know Panda. People are trying to use intuition to do maths. It doesn't work.

It isn't exact, unless you have an army of candidates who are going to play the game and you're betting on their overall success --- and not even then, but it's better than nothing. When you're playing the game yourself, however, and only once, then these chances are not much help and it's debatable whether you should go with the switch strategy or not. Technically speaking, you do have a "better chance" going with it, but it's small enough that you might choose to not switch after all.

You see, sometimes it's better to go against the odds. It takes guts, anyway.