RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 4:44 pm
(This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 4:50 pm by IATIA.)
(March 13, 2016 at 4:31 pm)Mr.wizard Wrote: The probability of picking a 1 car from behind 3 doors is always 33%, it doesn't matter if 100 people play the game and guess right 100 times, each game is independent and every contestant starts with a 33% chance of picking right. Using the coin flip analogy, if you flip a coin 10 times and it lands on heads 9 times does that mean that the probability of flipping a coin and having it land on heads is 90%? Of course not its a 50/50 probability.
Yes, that is so on the first go around, but if one door is opened and you are given a second chance to choose it changes everything. See my post above. There is a 2/3 chance that the other door will contain the car on the second go around. Because one has a 1/3 chance of having a car already, there is a 2/3 chance that one of the other doors has the car. Monty opened one which means there is a 2/3 chance that the other door has the car.
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-- Homer Simpson
God has no place within these walls, just as facts have no place within organized religion.
-- Superintendent Chalmers
Science is like a blabbermouth who ruins a movie by telling you how it ends. There are some things we don't want to know. Important things.
-- Ned Flanders
Once something's been approved by the government, it's no longer immoral.
-- The Rev Lovejoy
