(March 13, 2016 at 9:24 pm)pool the great Wrote: Oh. My. God.
Initially there are 3doors inside which what we know not of (is that a correct sentence!?)
So the chance of getting a goat is not 50-50.
But after the host reveals a goat behind a door and asks you whether you want to switch :
You could have either chosen a goat initially.
You could have chosen a car initially.
Saying that the probability is not 50-50 is saying that Monty opens a door behind which he has a car and then asks you to switch. Shit damn.
Asking me to believe that the chance is not 50-50 is asking is to go against my common sense. There are two options car and goat, there are two doors, the chance of having chosen a goat initially is 50-50.
No, it's not and it has been explained why it is not.
"Common sense" does not trump mathematics.
Skepticism is not a position; it is an approach to claims.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
Science is not a subject, but a method.
