RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 14, 2016 at 5:30 am
(This post was last modified: March 14, 2016 at 5:30 am by ErGingerbreadMandude.)
Unlike you guys I didn't think the problem was easy.
I did think hard about it sadly it took me some time for the problem to *click*.
The answer is simple.
*switching is beneficial only if you initially chose a door behind which there is a goat.
*since the probability of choosing a goat initially, before any door is opened its higher, you have a higher probability of choosing a door behind which is a goat.
*profit.
The problem I faced was thinking that the probability of having chosen a goat initially was 50-50 after Monty opens a door and shows a goat behind it.
I did think hard about it sadly it took me some time for the problem to *click*.
The answer is simple.
*switching is beneficial only if you initially chose a door behind which there is a goat.
*since the probability of choosing a goat initially, before any door is opened its higher, you have a higher probability of choosing a door behind which is a goat.
*profit.
The problem I faced was thinking that the probability of having chosen a goat initially was 50-50 after Monty opens a door and shows a goat behind it.
