RE: Probability question: names in hats
March 14, 2016 at 11:02 am
(This post was last modified: March 14, 2016 at 11:03 am by robvalue.)
Nice
Just to show why it is 8/9 for the first pick, to get someone from player 2 to 9:
Prob(1st pick) + Prob(own name)*Prob(2nd pick)
=8/10 + (1/10)*(8/9)
=8/10 + 8/90
=72/90 + 8/90
=80/90
=8/9
So it does act as if their own name just wasn't in the hat in the first place. It would have to, or else the probabilities for each of the remaining 9 names wouldn't add up to 1.
Just to show why it is 8/9 for the first pick, to get someone from player 2 to 9:
Prob(1st pick) + Prob(own name)*Prob(2nd pick)
=8/10 + (1/10)*(8/9)
=8/10 + 8/90
=72/90 + 8/90
=80/90
=8/9
So it does act as if their own name just wasn't in the hat in the first place. It would have to, or else the probabilities for each of the remaining 9 names wouldn't add up to 1.
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