RE: Probability question: names in hats
March 14, 2016 at 11:17 am
(This post was last modified: March 14, 2016 at 11:18 am by robvalue.)
That was the very first answer I came up with when I tried this
Sadly, it's wrong.
You're on the right track, but the probability for the second person depends on whether or not the first guy took his name already. If he took it, his probability is 8/9 again. If it didn't get taken, it's 7/8. Similarly, each pick will depend on whether his own one has been taken.
I can't get my head around how you account for all the combinations as they can all have different probabilities.

You're on the right track, but the probability for the second person depends on whether or not the first guy took his name already. If he took it, his probability is 8/9 again. If it didn't get taken, it's 7/8. Similarly, each pick will depend on whether his own one has been taken.
I can't get my head around how you account for all the combinations as they can all have different probabilities.
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