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Current time: January 23, 2025, 3:23 am

Poll: Would you switch(and why)?
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Yes
81.82%
9 81.82%
No
9.09%
1 9.09%
I don't know.
9.09%
1 9.09%
Total 11 vote(s) 100%
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The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
(March 15, 2016 at 1:48 am)Aractus Wrote:
(March 15, 2016 at 12:36 am)Jenny A Wrote: Sort of. The probability is based on knowing he will always reveal a door you didn't choose. Otherwise he might only reveal another door if you have already chosen the prize.  But, if he must reveal a door, his intentions are irrelivant.  If he reveals a goat, your best bet is to switch.  If he revealed the car, but didn't let you chose it, there's no option to consider.



Incorrect, I already proved it. If he intentionally picks the car, but has opened a goat that means you must have selected the door with the car, and switching in that case will guarantee you loose. His intentions are the only reason there's a benefit to switching.

If he must show you a door you haven't picked, than his intentions are irrelivant. He can't show you the car because that would spoil the game. Therefore he will show you a goat. And you will learn from that that switching is the better option.
If there is a god, I want to believe that there is a god.  If there is not a god, I want to believe that there is no god.
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Messages In This Thread
RE: Probability? - by TheRealJoeFish - March 8, 2016 at 7:53 pm
RE: Probability? - by Excited Penguin - March 8, 2016 at 7:56 pm
RE: Probability? - by TheRealJoeFish - March 8, 2016 at 8:06 pm
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem - by Jenny A - March 15, 2016 at 1:57 am

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