@AJ, it seems you are very proud of your probability figures...
I'm sure you've taken into account the fact that those features don't just pop into existence in one go, right?
The eye... luckily, there are many living beings with light sensitive apparatuses.
Some are simple light sensitive cells on the outer covering of the animal letting it know if it's in the light or shade... that provides some survival advantage - better stay in the dark, for less chance of being eaten by something else. But, in a time when no more complex eye existed, that would not be the main concern. It would be availability of resources for breeding - perhaps light would bring with it warmer conditions that could provide for better nutrition.
Bending this area of light receptive cells would allow some directionality of the perceived light, leading to better positioning for nutrient gain.
Do not forget that life was underwater... but these features would come up for shallow water.
Further bending would lead to a cup shaped area of the skin, providing even better directionality.
More bending and you end up with a pinhole lens. Pinhole lenses are great, as they focus stuff... They focus images equally, regardless of the distance. They're great. If you suffer from mild shortsightedness you can get pinhole perforated "glasses" and you'll be able to see sharp-ish images. Pinhole is good, but could be better. With the pinhole lens, the eye can now see its environment... the brain must have evolved to accommodate the ever increasing information that's coming in.
More bending leads to no light.... so that wouldn't work
But a small layer of transparent cells would work... and protect the light sensitive cells from external attacks.... which would be a plus...
As it becomes protected, directionality becomes ever more important, muscles around the cup help direct it.
More skin helps in further protecting, and you get stuff like eye-lids.
etc
etc
etc
You could have calculated your odds, by providing the probability of each step...
I'm sure you've taken into account the fact that those features don't just pop into existence in one go, right?
The eye... luckily, there are many living beings with light sensitive apparatuses.
Some are simple light sensitive cells on the outer covering of the animal letting it know if it's in the light or shade... that provides some survival advantage - better stay in the dark, for less chance of being eaten by something else. But, in a time when no more complex eye existed, that would not be the main concern. It would be availability of resources for breeding - perhaps light would bring with it warmer conditions that could provide for better nutrition.
Bending this area of light receptive cells would allow some directionality of the perceived light, leading to better positioning for nutrient gain.
Do not forget that life was underwater... but these features would come up for shallow water.
Further bending would lead to a cup shaped area of the skin, providing even better directionality.
More bending and you end up with a pinhole lens. Pinhole lenses are great, as they focus stuff... They focus images equally, regardless of the distance. They're great. If you suffer from mild shortsightedness you can get pinhole perforated "glasses" and you'll be able to see sharp-ish images. Pinhole is good, but could be better. With the pinhole lens, the eye can now see its environment... the brain must have evolved to accommodate the ever increasing information that's coming in.
More bending leads to no light.... so that wouldn't work

But a small layer of transparent cells would work... and protect the light sensitive cells from external attacks.... which would be a plus...
As it becomes protected, directionality becomes ever more important, muscles around the cup help direct it.
More skin helps in further protecting, and you get stuff like eye-lids.
etc
etc
etc
You could have calculated your odds, by providing the probability of each step...