NFL 2016 Pick'em League!

[Crossless2.0]

Is a .500 rating a symptom that you're just guessing, or is it really a crapshoot and telling who is going to win each week largely guesswork?  I keep thinking that if I only get .500, then I'm probably just guessing.  Which is okay at the start of the season, but I was around .500 at the end of last year's season.  What is wrong with me?

I don't follow football nearly as closely as I did even a few years ago, so for me, especially this early in the season, it is largely guesswork.

I don't think a .500 record at the end of a season is necessarily an indication that you are just guessing or don't know what you're doing. Of all the professional sports leagues, the NFL seems to have done the best job of creating something like true parity (I know, Browns fans, I know ). If you look at the point spreads week by week, you won't find a high percentage among them in which a large, blow out spread is predicted.

For what it's worth, here's an article that breaks down the probability of favorites and underdogs winning according to the size of the point spread (based on past season performances):

http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/