RE: Anecdotal Evidence
October 7, 2016 at 3:49 am
(This post was last modified: October 7, 2016 at 5:58 am by robvalue.)
I noticed this key phrase RR:
You'd accept anecdotes which go against your positions "if you don't have reason to doubt them".
Therein lies the problem. I'm not suggesting it's just you with this problem, it is perfectly natural to be more suspicious and critical of evidence contrary to held beliefs. I do it too, I have to actively police against it. The fact that they are just anecdotes is reason to doubt them, if it's something extremely unusual. That is my position. Not reason to totally ignore them, but enough for reasonable doubt. Enough, quite possibly, to investigate further. Especially if you're going to base any sort of important decisions on the result, as I covered in my scepticism video.
But I would wager you would pretty much always find a reason to doubt such anecdotes, if they demonstrated something that would nullify your religious position. Would you ever honestly abandon your religious views based on a big pile of anecdotes? It's a serious question. Imagine there are 1,000 accounts all corroborating that God is in fact Allah. Or God turned up and destroyed himself. Or God announced he is evil. Would you ever believe any of those things just based on verbal/written accounts? My guess is that the first reason to doubt them would be, "Why are they saying this? Do they have an ulterior motive?". And then, "Are they mistaken, or projecting their previous beliefs, and fell foul of manipulation or mass hysteria?" Or, "That can't be true." And of course, "Are these even really 1,000 different people?" To make the point, if I handed you 1,000 accounts about something, all apparently written by different people, would you ever believe it? Or would you always assume I'm winding you up?
Thank you for your replies, you've been reasonable with me in this thread and I appreciate it. I'm not trying to be a jerk here, I'm just trying to inspire thought. If your answer is that yes, you really would abandon your beliefs based on the same level of anecdotal evidence which you think supports them, then fair enough. I will take you at your word.
You'd accept anecdotes which go against your positions "if you don't have reason to doubt them".
Therein lies the problem. I'm not suggesting it's just you with this problem, it is perfectly natural to be more suspicious and critical of evidence contrary to held beliefs. I do it too, I have to actively police against it. The fact that they are just anecdotes is reason to doubt them, if it's something extremely unusual. That is my position. Not reason to totally ignore them, but enough for reasonable doubt. Enough, quite possibly, to investigate further. Especially if you're going to base any sort of important decisions on the result, as I covered in my scepticism video.
But I would wager you would pretty much always find a reason to doubt such anecdotes, if they demonstrated something that would nullify your religious position. Would you ever honestly abandon your religious views based on a big pile of anecdotes? It's a serious question. Imagine there are 1,000 accounts all corroborating that God is in fact Allah. Or God turned up and destroyed himself. Or God announced he is evil. Would you ever believe any of those things just based on verbal/written accounts? My guess is that the first reason to doubt them would be, "Why are they saying this? Do they have an ulterior motive?". And then, "Are they mistaken, or projecting their previous beliefs, and fell foul of manipulation or mass hysteria?" Or, "That can't be true." And of course, "Are these even really 1,000 different people?" To make the point, if I handed you 1,000 accounts about something, all apparently written by different people, would you ever believe it? Or would you always assume I'm winding you up?
Thank you for your replies, you've been reasonable with me in this thread and I appreciate it. I'm not trying to be a jerk here, I'm just trying to inspire thought. If your answer is that yes, you really would abandon your beliefs based on the same level of anecdotal evidence which you think supports them, then fair enough. I will take you at your word.
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Please visit my website here! It's got lots of information about atheism/theism and support for new atheists.
Index of useful threads and discussions
Index of my best videos
Quickstart guide to the forum