(November 4, 2016 at 3:02 pm)Alasdair Ham Wrote:Mathilda Wrote:The assumption he is making is that progress will speed up exponentially. He cannot make that assumption.
And he doesn't. In fact he says the exact opposite:
Sam Harris Wrote:It's crucial to realize that the rate of progress doesn't matter. Any progress is enough to get us into the endzone. We don't need Moore's Law to continue; we don't need exponential progress... we just need to keep going.
Underline added.
He said this verbatim in the video. How can you say he's making the assumption of exponential improvement when he specifically says the exact opposite in the video?
He is making the assumption of the singularity. He hasn't specifically said it but that's what he is referring to. That's what he is describing. I know what he's referring to because other people do as well. Hence the bit he talks about replacing an office of workers and having the AI do the research. Fundamental to this is an exponential increase in progress. He claims that it's not required but then inserts it in anyway. Yet at no point does he even speculate how a disembodied computer can sit there creating new knowledge out of thin air.
