UK to leave EU

[Ben Davis]

By that logic, that means the 2008 financial crisis was end of the UK, if we're talking economics. But no, I don't think an economic hit and curtailed freedom of movement is the end of the UK for many.

(Can I start by assuming that everyone's in agreement that there will be an economic downturn? The argument seems to lie in the extent of the turn, not it's likelihood of occurrence.)

'End' is overly dramatic regarding the whole of the UK however for some people, it definitely will be. In any economic down-turn, some vulnerable people will die. Given the likely nature of the downturn and the areas of spending that the Tories are likely to cut, we can expect the very old, the very young, the very poor and the very disabled to suffer the most.

The status of EU nationals residing here is unlikely to change either.

Almost certainly right here and this is one of the issues that kicks remainers and leavers alike in the teeth. Given that much of our fundamental social and service infrastructure depends on migrant labour (e.g. NHS, Council, food production, sanitation, construction), the view we can 'Take Back Control of our Borders!™' is ridiculous. So those who voted Leave on that basis are in for a shock. Further, since remainers lost on the basis of this as a major strap-line, the fact that there will probably be no change and we'll still all be worse off is highly frustrating. Further, the increase in xenophobia may well mean a backlash when this fact becomes clear, resulting in further increases in racist attacks.

It's also worth noting that the EU is considering associate citizenship for Brits who want it, so freedom of movement won't totally end.

I've heard this too but we'll see where it goes. At the moment it's a carrot in the negotiations for remainers but for the hardcore leavers, it's an insult.

Of course, there's also the subject of Scottish Independence as well. If things continue the way they are going then I will consider voting for it.

I wouldn't blame you either. I know there's a whole discussion to be had on this subject but I think it's likely that Scottish independence will get another referendum in due course.

If we become a basket case like Greece, yeah, you would have a point  but just taking a bit of an economic hit or the economic growth slowing down doesn't mean it is the end of the UK as we know it.

Hmmm, this is a tricky one. Since Thatcher, we've been selling off our manufacturing industries to the point where the majority of large companies are owned offshore. More than the threat of increased tariffs, it's delays in supply chains caused by new trade barriers that would be the biggest impact. Many manufacturers already have started making plans for relocation because of this threat. Further, our main industries are technological, with research science being amongst our biggest earners. That's already being effected with literally hundreds of major studies being shut down as nervous investors withhold funding. The cream of global scientific intellect has been attracted to the UK because of our relationship with the EU and they're already starting to leave. The big bad wolf in the room is of course the financial markets. This is where the Brexit team have focussed their efforts because that's where most of their mates make their money. London houses the world's most profitable market which faces significant impact if tariffs change. This is why the team suggested the 'Tax haven' approach. If they can cut corporation taxes to the point that companies save more than tariffs cost them, we'll keep their business, their share value and the ability to buoy our market. We'll have a lot less cash in the public coffers but hey, people don't count in the Tories eyes; they'll probably kill a lot of the trouble-makers when they sell off the NHS to the US in exchange for a double-edged 'preferential' trade agreement.

I suppose my confidence in the negotiations isn't as strong as I thought. Admittedly, I am concerned about many things such as jobs and possibly less funding for universities. It could go either way but it would still surprise me if the government walked away without any deal at all.

Well, May's said that's an option but I think it's bluster too; fucking stupid bluster which has done nothing but piss off the people we're going to negotiate with and made us a laughing stock in international politics.

Interestingly enough, it seemed to be primarily lower classes (unemployed and working class) who voted to leave but obviously there are exceptions.

There were some quite disparate groups in the leave camp: lower working class, hard socialists, right-wing xenophobes... the key is that the majority were easily manipulated by rhetoric. There were also some highly intelligent groups with real concerns about things like fiscal policy, systemic corruption, admissions failure, fisheries & agriculture, tyranny of the masses, encroaching authoritarianism... I was one of them. The major difference between me and those leavers was that whilst I saw them as things to fix, which required our continued presence, they saw them as reasons to get out. You probably didn't hear much from those groups during the campaign because the Farage et al didn't want to talk about real issues, in case they gave too much credit to expert opinion.

Me? I couldn't vote then but looking back I am quite happy that I couldn't.

It was easy for me. I was 'remain' all the way.

SO, since the UK initiated the divorce proceedings, does it have to pay alimony?

No.

Not sure about this. There are many financial obligations that have to be fulfilled or that we were due to fulfill, that we'll owe them money for. Is it as much as the £60b figure that's been thrown about? Probably not but it may well be billions. And we need to consider that the EU received funding from us so since we're the party that's leaving, we may well need to provide maintenance. We'll see but my cynicism tells me we'll pay something; I hope I'm wrong.