(May 11, 2017 at 5:09 am)pocaracas Wrote: Spoiler alert!
Don't know what to make of that preview... it seems that some crazy stuff is coming.
Sarah looks like she's in a comfy spot.
Oddly enough, no one seems concerned about Michaela's anti-social behavior...
Cirie still gliding through while being friends with everyone... if she doesn't get voted out soon, she'll win this. It's a shame that she's not likely to ever win a challenge.
Andrea doesn't seem to be in a comfortable position, right now... I suppose she's going to sheep out for the next episode. I'd like her to stay on... at least for the eye candy.
Aubrey is also gliding through unnoticed... I could envisage a final three of Aubrey, Cirie and Michaela.
The guys... poor fellas.... always betting on the wrong horse. Tai and Brad can win a few challenges... but Brad will possibly be going home as soon as he looses one. Tai should start playing his idols... it's getting close.
The other guy, Troysand or however his name is spelled... he's gliding through... but always on the wrong side of the votes...
Anyway, there's still quite a bit of game ahead. 3 or 4 episode, right? We'll see what nonsense those starved folk do.
So that was a pretty slick move Sarah pulled there, getting Sierra to pass on her legacy advantage to her while knifing her in the back. I don't think that's going to win her Sierra's vote, and might cost her other votes if she were to get to the final, but it was a bold move that worked at least in the short term. I don't know that she fully thought out the consequences though. Then again, in a season like this where the entire playerlist is made up of cutthroats, maybe not. She'll have to make sure that whoever is sitting next to her at the end is pretty despicable, though - assuming she can make it, which I kind of doubt.
I don't think Michaela is on the radar all that much any longer - I think she's really softened up her demeanor, and frankly, I think she's not bad for keeping around to take to the end because no one really likes her that much, except Tai. She hasn't shown a knack for making big moves that I recall, and she's really only a threat as an underdog and as a threat to win immunity. I don't think either of those factors wins her many votes at the end.
Cirie is very much a threat to win the whole thing if everyone keeps passing her over for scrutiny. You haven't seen her prior seasons, correct? She is very, very good at the social game and it should be very apparent that she's no threat to win challenges (to me, one's ability to win challenges can get you farther, but it doesn't necessarily help you at the end - but the social game does).
If it comes down to your three of Aubrey/Cirie/Michaela, I think Cirie wins easily.
Troyzan is an enigma this season to me. He doesn't get much screen time, he's not making big moves, and as you say, he's on the wrong side of votes. He could go deep but he's going to have to step things up if he wants to win. Right now he has very little on his resume except that by virtue of being on the wrong side of the numbers, he hasn't really betrayed anyone of importance. That strategy has worked before (Hi, Sandra!), but it doesn't work often. There is, however, very little reason to vote him off.
I think Brad goes home as soon as he doesn't have immunity, simply by virtue of the fact that he's very good at challenges. I don't think he has a better than average chance of winning. However, having the benefit of a visit from his wife - who is a very good player - can only help him.
Absent a major change, I don't see Andrea going much farther.
There's 8 players left, and it's going to go down to 10 jury / 3 finalists or 11 jury / 2 finalists. I haven't heard which, if it's been announced, nor do I know how many episodes will air. 5 or 6 more have to go. They'll eliminate 2 or 3 in the finale, so 3-4 more episodes sounds about right. Maybe 5.
That latter point is important to consider what might happen with Tai. Assuming he doesn't get voted off with both idols in his pocket, he will almost certainly make it to the final 5 (at which point hidden immunity idols typically become inert). Can he win? I don't know. He's very likable, which works in his favor, but Survivor is not about finding hidden immunity idols, and doing so does not usually impress the jury.
I have a fair idea of what the final 6 looks like (everyone minus Brad and Andrea) but beyond that, no idea.
