(July 26, 2017 at 3:53 pm)mh.brewer Wrote:(July 26, 2017 at 2:46 pm)SteveII Wrote: [edit]
First point. Of course someone being supernaturally healed or rising from the dead is an improbable claim. However, the improbability of this event could be counter-balanced by examining the evidence and simply asking the question: what is the probability of this evidence being present had a miracle not occurred? As this probability number goes down, the probability of the event having a supernatural cause goes up. Notice that there is no requirement that the evidence be 'extraordinary'.
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My improbable claim is that an apparent super natural being, (named super man oddly enough) exists and can fly. People (not me) claim to have seen it and have written books about it. What is the probability of this evidence being present had this flight not occurred?
The probability is low which means that a supernatural event cause for the claim is high. Notice that there is no requirement that the evidence be extraordinary. Do you believe it without additional evidence?
Your analogy (and everyone else's about Santa or unicorns or whatever) is lacking for the sole reason you made it up. There is no evidence to weigh or consider alternative explanations. It is totally irrelevant and makes no point.