(November 29, 2017 at 6:00 pm)curiosne Wrote:Your #2 I would agree with, and would add that we need to weigh anything against.(November 29, 2017 at 5:42 pm)RoadRunner79 Wrote: I think that it needs to make the claim evident, beyond a reasonable doubt. I realize, that is still not very specific, but as I think on it, and I touched on this briefly before, I don't think that it is all that easy to make a standard rule. It could be an observation, or perhaps simple observation isn't enough. It could be a number of circumstantial pieces of evidence, that are weak individually, but collectively point strongly to a unified conclusion. Perhaps principles would be a better word, but even then a lot can change in the details. I am flexible and willing to compromise, perhaps you could start off what you are thinking of as a standard.
Yes, I like the word principles so let's use that instead.
If you would like my principle, here it is:
Does that sound like a good principle? If yes, let's move on otherwise please explain your reasoning.
- There is a positive correlation between the quantity and quality of evidence for what I deem to be an out of the ordinary claim.
- All the available evidence I can find will get me towards a certain confidence level on how much I believe the claim in question.
The first principle , is where we disagree, as I have been discussing. By out of the ordinary; do you mean frequency of occurrence? How does that effect your knowledge of what happened? It seems to me, that statistics of frequency may be useful when you do not have knowledge (to bolster assumptions or possibly predictions), but have little weight when evidence points towards the less ordinary. These bolster assumptions based on probability, but have little to do when talking about knowledge and epistemology.
I work quite a bit, troubleshooting machine controls. Frequency of certain types of failures often come up as a starting point, but then I need to look for evidence and reason to support and gain knowledge. I'm not a happy camper, when I have to rely on just that initial guess or what may ordinarily occur. Also the out of the ordinary happens quite often. Working as a contractor, I often am involved in the out of the ordinary. Where the average customer may have the odd problem maybe once a year or so, I am often called in, because the solution is particularly difficult to find. And sometimes they knew the solution, but didn't want to consider it; because it was out of the ordinary, and I get to be the hero when they did all the work.
It is said that an argument is what convinces reasonable men and a proof is what it takes to convince even an unreasonable man. - Alexander Vilenkin
If I am shown my error, I will be the first to throw my books into the fire. - Martin Luther
If I am shown my error, I will be the first to throw my books into the fire. - Martin Luther