Yeah, the spread of Christianity took some time (a few decades at best). It didn't just happen suddenly/rapidly. So all arguments following from that are moot. And even so, rapid spread does not imply rapid growth per region.
And miracles are naturally going to have low credences assigned to them, so a proper and honest use of Bayes' theorem isn't going to be favorable to miracles, unless we actually begin to observe that miracles really do happen, particularly ones that clearly correspond to the supernatural position more than to the naturalist position. And, of course, we need to take into account our susceptibility as human beings to biases (individual and collective).
And miracles are naturally going to have low credences assigned to them, so a proper and honest use of Bayes' theorem isn't going to be favorable to miracles, unless we actually begin to observe that miracles really do happen, particularly ones that clearly correspond to the supernatural position more than to the naturalist position. And, of course, we need to take into account our susceptibility as human beings to biases (individual and collective).
