Disproving Odin - An Experiment in arguing with a theist with Theist logic

[RoadRunner79]

I'm not sure how things went from Odin, to the Kalam Cosmological Argument.  However, sometimes I think that things can be lost in the back and forth such as here in the KCA.  So here are a few thoughts on the conversation. 

There are number of fallacious claims, that seem to be flung at the KCA.  Many of them are very much wrong, some plain bad.  I won't go over the bad claims.  One of the stronger claims of fallacy is perhaps the claim that there is equivocation in the phrase "begins to exist".  However I think that this is just a misunderstanding, and at least for myself, I am not using the phrase in two different ways.  The fallacy of equivocation is something like JimBob is Greek, Greek is a language, therefore JimBob is a language.  This is obviously wrong, and the problem comes in that the word "Greek" is no being used in the same way, and there isn't the relationship between the two  premises.  What I have seen (and what I mean) by "begins to exist"  is that it comes into being, or that it was not, and now is.  That which begins to exist, needs a reason or explanation for that beginning.

Now an issue of the discussion.  Steve had mentioned, that the argument is more likely than not.  From which a discussion became about the mathematics and probabilities.   Here I would argue, that there is an equivocation.   That "likely" or "probable" in an inductive or logical sense, is not the same as in the mathematical sense.  I can somewhat understand, the tendency to put numbers on confidence levels, but I have always thought it is a mistake to then take these numbers and start applying them in a math or science type scenario.   The number is based on something tangible but is little more than the persons sense of what is.  I don't think it is accurately representing the situation, to say that 3 our of 5 times the universe had a cause, and the other 2 it just poofed into being without reason. 

Which brings us to the question at hand.  Are things that begin to exist contingent (dependent on) something else for it's existence. Do things just poof into existence without cause or explanation?  What would keep things from poofing into being all the time?  Are there limits to what nothing can do?  For me, I would say that this is not just more likely, but it is close to a basic principle.  I would say, that I am beyond just skeptical of it.  To go agaisnt the principle of ex nihilo nihil fit and not just asking someone to accept a claim without reason or explanation; but, asking them to accept something that at it's core is without reason or explanation.  My belief is that of the early propagators of science, that the universe is logical and that things do not happen without reason (which would include the beginning of the universe).  I not only believe that an effects needs an explanation for the effect, but that it needs a sufficient cause.  This brings us back to the question of what are the limits of nothing? 

So the question is, which do you think is more likely?   Do things poof into existence without cause, or does everything that begins to exist have a reason for that beginning.  Does it make a difference, that this argument is used as part of a larger argument for God (a rhetorical question)? Would you be consistent if nothing was offered in an argument by a Christian?   If we allow for this, then what can we deny?  For me, to go against the principle from nothing; nothing comes, is going to be similar to accepting a contradiction.   Even if observations appear to indicate that this is so, it's just irrational, and there must be a mistake in what we think we are seeing, or our reasons.