Disproving Odin - An Experiment in arguing with a theist with Theist logic

[SteveII]

Fine, reword the first premise to whatever you want. My point is so obviously clear and it is equally so obvious clear you did not address it. We are NOT looking to make sure all the premises are true and what the probability that all the premises being true is. Read that again to make sure you understand it. We are looking for what the probability of the conclusion is. Number 7 is NOT 61%. If I added five more 80% likely reasons why it might be Wednesday, it will NOT DROP. It goes up!!!!

This is not a difficult concept and it truly amazes me that several of you think you have a point. You don't. 

If you want to understand the underlying mathematical reasons, you want to read up Bayes Theorem and especially Bayesian Inference.

Yes, and the probability of the conclusion is the product of the (relative) probabilities for the premises involved in the conclusion.

In your addition of other premises, you are providing alternative ways to get to the conclusion, not additional premises for a deduction of that conclusion.

So, for example, suppose we have

A and B implies Z

and also

C and D implies Z

and also

E and F implies Z.

We first multiply the probabilities of A and B to get the probability of going *that* route to Z. Then we multiply the probabilities of C and D for *that* route to Z. Finally, we multiply the probabilities of E and F for the probability that *that* route to Z works.

Then, to find the *overall* probability of Z, we multiply the probabilities that *all* routes fail and subtract that from 1.

Of course, at each stage we should use relative probabilities.

Yes. So the example of these observations:


1. Mary usually goes to the market only on Wednesday (95%)
2. Mary is at the market. 
3. The street cleaners usually run on Wednesday (80%)
4. The street cleaner just went around the corner 
5. The garbage is picked up on Tuesday evening (80%)
6. The garbage cans in the alley are empty
yields the probability that today is Wednesday 1-(5% x 20% x 20%) at 99.8%