RE: Ice In The Wintertime
April 23, 2018 at 5:38 pm
(This post was last modified: April 23, 2018 at 5:43 pm by Anomalocaris.)
Kim would never got a state of the art nuclear weapon. He will never get a state of the art ballistic missile. Both of those are moving targets. His piss poor country with very little access to elite stalls of the the global technology fair simply can’t ever get close.
But what he needs is the fear and doubt in American minds that just a few of his missiles might survive and then get through.
For that what he has is sufficient and if he stops testing now they will remain sufficient for a long time. He doesn’t need to keep refining his weapons with more tests for a long time to come.
So for the US to celebrate this North Korean “concession” is to celebrate the closing of the barn door after all the horses have bolted.
What is more, trump will gloat over this concession, and extract nothing more form Kim. Kim mean while, will be able to resume testing anytime he wants as a political tool to rachet up international temperature as it suits him.
What trump will “gain” is precisely the same thing as what the US “gained” in each of the past round of negotiations. North Korea will do whatever it takes to reach its next goal. Once they attained their gain, they will offer to stop doing what they no longer need to do as concession. They will then wait a while, take back their concession as tool to distract the world and rachet up the temperature, and then use period of elevated tension to pursue yet a further goal.
But what he needs is the fear and doubt in American minds that just a few of his missiles might survive and then get through.
For that what he has is sufficient and if he stops testing now they will remain sufficient for a long time. He doesn’t need to keep refining his weapons with more tests for a long time to come.
So for the US to celebrate this North Korean “concession” is to celebrate the closing of the barn door after all the horses have bolted.
What is more, trump will gloat over this concession, and extract nothing more form Kim. Kim mean while, will be able to resume testing anytime he wants as a political tool to rachet up international temperature as it suits him.
What trump will “gain” is precisely the same thing as what the US “gained” in each of the past round of negotiations. North Korea will do whatever it takes to reach its next goal. Once they attained their gain, they will offer to stop doing what they no longer need to do as concession. They will then wait a while, take back their concession as tool to distract the world and rachet up the temperature, and then use period of elevated tension to pursue yet a further goal.
