ISIS predicted in 2003

[Angrboda]

This is still irelevant to the point. You can't say that they predicted this, they guessed. There are to many variables, we can't predict the weather accurately for a week and you think that we can predict a event in our social environment years before it happened.

The definition of "predict" is:

predict
/prɪˈdɪkt/
verb
verb: predict; 3rd person present: predicts; past tense: predicted; past participle: predicted; gerund or present participle: predicting
say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something.

synonyms:forecast, foretell, foresee, prophesy, divine, prognosticate, anticipate, see, say, tell in advance, project, speculate, envision, envisage, imagine, picture, estimate, conjecture, guess, hazard a guess;
archaicaugur, previse, presage, foreshow;
archaicspae;
rarevaticinate, auspicate
"it is difficult to predict what the outcome will be"

So they pretty much "predicted" ISIS. It's very relevant to the point; it's actually the whole point.
"Guess" is a synonym for predict. So what's your point? what is your objection on the use of "predict"; which is a synonym for "guess"??

What was your point? we can always "guess/predict" some future events to some degree, the gift of the "foresight" increases the more we have experience in life, or we have knowledge to build upon.
The world is full of "foresight centers" that presidents and politicians use to "foresee/predict" the consequence of their actions.

One has to ask what your point is if one could guess that ISIS would develop based on reasonable expectations about events?