RE: Global warming: Are we doomed? A poll.
November 6, 2021 at 9:03 pm
(This post was last modified: November 6, 2021 at 9:04 pm by slartibartfast.)
I'm very late to this topic, but here are my thoughts. Let me start by saying I do believe in man made climate change before you misinterpret my musings below.
1. It is unequivocal that temperatures are going up globally at an unprecedented rate. That is a fact.
2. It is also a fact that humans are polluting the atmosphere with emissions that undeniably increase heat retention
3. We can also accurately predict how "runaway" this process will be due to compounding factors such as loss of reflectivity of ice sheets
4. We can also accurately model the number of humans which will likely be affected at certain levels of sea rise / regional rainfall changes and therefore assess the overall cost to humanity of certain outcomes.
Nobody is disputing any of this (or if they are they clearly haven't looked at the evidence)
The fundamental problems with addressing climate change are twofold:
a. It is hard to prove the exact relationship between 2 and 1 above. There are many mathematical models, but they still involve many assumptions and it is hard to eliminate the impact of other potential causes. This fact is being undeniably milked to the max by climate change deniers to poo poo the whole thing.
b. The next point is more subtle and difficult, which involves the whole "how do you prioritise" this vs. other things thing. Assuming you can get enough consensus for a. above, where do you rate this problem vs. other global issues?
We're already up shit creek. Not just do we lack a paddle, the boat is made of paper, some shit is already in the boat and rising exponentially fast with each further panel that disintegrates, we have a lot of people in the boat who don't believe the boat is even sinking or don't care enough to read up on what "shit" even is but insist on having as much say as those who have been studying shit and boats all their lives and have years of in-boat shit-line measurements. Some passengers believe that the boat will magically refloat before their feet get dirty and therefore do nothing, and a bunch more think everything will ultimately be alright because people are tough and they personally can swim (even though most can't), 196 different captains are on board (some of which fall into the aforementioned categories) and only their own people listen each one, and all have different ideas on what to do. Sound like a recipe for success?
An activist for a given cause will be extremely passionate about that cause, to the exclusion of everything else, and this is also true for climate change activists, and that is something that Greta doesn't get as she is laser focused to the point of lecturing world leaders who have a much broader range of issues to consider every day.
Do I think we will conquer global warming? Yes and No.
We won't get there fast enough to counteract all of the negatives predicted. Wealthy people will be OK and can get around the issues by relocating / changing their investment strategies. I suppose in 50 years even the middle classes will be bemoaning the terrible impact on low latitudinal peoples while sipping mulled wine from the balcony of their newly built Quebec condo.
BUT the general mindset of people around the globe is changing. Eventually it will come down to economics and demand. People now increasingly demand electric cars. People want to know that they products and services they buy are carbon friendly. The only way that we will get there is due to changing behaviours and spending habits, and that will take a great deal of time. Technology will also play a role, as we will ultimately invent new ways of doing things.
Do I think this will come about quickly? No. We also can't ignore other global issues to their detriment. I believe we will see a great deal of pain before the climate change oil tanker slowly changes course.
1. It is unequivocal that temperatures are going up globally at an unprecedented rate. That is a fact.
2. It is also a fact that humans are polluting the atmosphere with emissions that undeniably increase heat retention
3. We can also accurately predict how "runaway" this process will be due to compounding factors such as loss of reflectivity of ice sheets
4. We can also accurately model the number of humans which will likely be affected at certain levels of sea rise / regional rainfall changes and therefore assess the overall cost to humanity of certain outcomes.
Nobody is disputing any of this (or if they are they clearly haven't looked at the evidence)
The fundamental problems with addressing climate change are twofold:
a. It is hard to prove the exact relationship between 2 and 1 above. There are many mathematical models, but they still involve many assumptions and it is hard to eliminate the impact of other potential causes. This fact is being undeniably milked to the max by climate change deniers to poo poo the whole thing.
b. The next point is more subtle and difficult, which involves the whole "how do you prioritise" this vs. other things thing. Assuming you can get enough consensus for a. above, where do you rate this problem vs. other global issues?
- poverty
- disease (incl. Covid)
- food security
- ageing populations
- human rights violations
- pollution / destructions of natural environments
- water scarcity
- equality
- etc...
We're already up shit creek. Not just do we lack a paddle, the boat is made of paper, some shit is already in the boat and rising exponentially fast with each further panel that disintegrates, we have a lot of people in the boat who don't believe the boat is even sinking or don't care enough to read up on what "shit" even is but insist on having as much say as those who have been studying shit and boats all their lives and have years of in-boat shit-line measurements. Some passengers believe that the boat will magically refloat before their feet get dirty and therefore do nothing, and a bunch more think everything will ultimately be alright because people are tough and they personally can swim (even though most can't), 196 different captains are on board (some of which fall into the aforementioned categories) and only their own people listen each one, and all have different ideas on what to do. Sound like a recipe for success?
An activist for a given cause will be extremely passionate about that cause, to the exclusion of everything else, and this is also true for climate change activists, and that is something that Greta doesn't get as she is laser focused to the point of lecturing world leaders who have a much broader range of issues to consider every day.
Do I think we will conquer global warming? Yes and No.
We won't get there fast enough to counteract all of the negatives predicted. Wealthy people will be OK and can get around the issues by relocating / changing their investment strategies. I suppose in 50 years even the middle classes will be bemoaning the terrible impact on low latitudinal peoples while sipping mulled wine from the balcony of their newly built Quebec condo.
BUT the general mindset of people around the globe is changing. Eventually it will come down to economics and demand. People now increasingly demand electric cars. People want to know that they products and services they buy are carbon friendly. The only way that we will get there is due to changing behaviours and spending habits, and that will take a great deal of time. Technology will also play a role, as we will ultimately invent new ways of doing things.
Do I think this will come about quickly? No. We also can't ignore other global issues to their detriment. I believe we will see a great deal of pain before the climate change oil tanker slowly changes course.
