Belief without Verification or Certainty

[Angrboda]

I'm reminded of the hedonistis treadmill and the fact that as humans, we maintain an unrealistically positive outlook, at times in spite of evidence to the contrary. We probably would not be as successful as we are as a species if we didn't. It's said that people who are depressed have a more "realistic" outlook on life, but such a realistic outlook seems to be a negative rather than a positive. So, sure, unjustified beliefs can have some utility in maintaining our motivation.

At the same time, I'm reminded of all the self-help talk about improving a person's self-confidence leading to improved chances of success. Yet there were suggestions from some studies that people who succeed have higher self-confidence than people who don't, so it's not clear that self-confidence is the lever that enables success or simply the result of that success. In general, I would place such things under the heading of useful myths. It is a dogma of many that if you work hard and do what you're supposed to in life, that you will succeed. However, there's good reason to believe that luck and circumstance play a much larger role in whether one will become the next millionaire than hard work or intelligence. Yet without this belief, people would likely be less motivated to work hard. In that I see the invisible hand of evolution. A wise man once told me that luck is the meeting of skill and opportunity. If you aren't working hard and doing the right things, even if life selects you out of the millions who will do likewise and not succeed, you aren't going to be able to take advantage of the opportunity. Evolution drives the many so that the few will result.

I have to take issue with William James here, as this is a just so story, not based upon any actual study of the matter. Sure, a lack of confidence in the jumper may lead him to failure, but undue confidence can lead to failure as well, in leading the climber to be less careful about how he makes his jump, or in preparing his leap. Just as confidence can aid success, it can also hinder it by encouraging negligence. So I'm not sure what to make of James' argument other than, well, maybe.