(December 12, 2022 at 5:55 pm)Jehanne Wrote: No doubt whatsoever exists that the Democrat nominee, whoever that may be (with some exceptions), will win the popular vote. Question is with respect to the Electoral College. Trump, if he is able to blackmail the Republican Party, will carry the Deep South and lower Midwest up through Iowa & the Dakotas, Ohio & Indiana and Idaho & Montana. He'll lose Virginia, the Upper East Coast, the West Coast and the Southwest. Florida is in the bag, with or without DeSantis; with DeSantis, Trump will carry Georgia.
Oh, one thing is for sure if Trump gets the nomination -- no televised Presidential debates.
I think the EC results from 2020 won't change much at all, unless inflation remains high. Not sure Trump would carry Georgia no matter what happens with DeSantis; they've pushed Warnock into office twice in two years, both times against Trump-supported opponents.
Trump's negative is not his base, it's that his rhetoric that the elections are rigged tends to depress GOP turnout. Couple that with his alienating independents, and that means he can only rely upon his own base, which is not enough to carry a general-election victory. This is what we saw in 2020, and that's without a special prosecutor and various lawsuits sapping his energy and attention.
Biden has to master the inflation curve. Gas prices are coming down significantly, which should help that. Diesel's under $4/gal, which makes me think retail CPI will be falling soon too. If CPI comes down and voters don't feel the pinch in 2024, then issues like the abortion ruling and "oh look, here's Trump again" become more salient to the voter on the ground. Both those work against Trump.