(January 7, 2023 at 9:50 pm)Anomalocaris Wrote:(January 7, 2023 at 9:29 pm)Jehanne Wrote: If MAGA can cause the United States to default on its debt (say, by refusing to pass a spending bill to keep the government running in the name of a "balanced budget"), such could trigger a worldwide depression. Trump will play his usual game of political chicken ("nominate me or I'll run as a third party and sink all of you") to get the nomination, blame the Democrats for any recession/depression and achieve power on economic grounds by running a "Who do you hate less?" campaign.
i don’t think the US defaulting will cause a world wide depression. it will de-dollarize world trade and marginalize the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, both of which i regard as beneficial in the long run precisely because the US is a debased country that could not be trusted to keep the likes of trump and his ilk out of central policy discussion, to say nothing of national leadership.
It could be a cascade -- higher interest rates with higher inflation, federal wages not being paid, some or most banks collapsing, stock market tumbling (perhaps, out of control), etc.; may take decades before recovering.
