Just a few points from this end then I quit. You keep talking about the Permian extinction like we can’t get there from here. Yes, I disagree with that assessment because I think we can get there from here. Please note that I didn’t say we would get there just that we could. I believe a similar outcome is avoidable. However if we continue down the same path we are currently on unabated the odds of a similar outcome are greatly increased. While conditions today are not identical to those at the height of the P-Tr event they are similar to in many ways than they were early on in the P-Tr event. CO2 levels in the atmosphere and in the oceans are going up. Surface temperatures are on the rise. These things combined with other human activities are causing habitats to be lost faster than the creatures that live in them can adapt to their changed environment. We are already in the 6th great extinction.
The thing I think you keep missing because you have yet to address it is if things that led up to the P-Tr event were so much worse than they are now, why is the data telling us things are happening faster now than they did then? We won’t need flood basalt eruptions if our current activities set off a chain of events that raise the surface temperature 8 C and releases the methane hydrate currently sequestered at the bottom of the oceans. Hell, right now a good volcanic eruption every couple of years would provide a mitigating effect to AGW.
On aquifer depletion, increased aridity and mass migrations. Never once did I even suggest that low water high yield farming technics are not economically feasible. What I said was many of our aquifers are being depleted at unsustainable rates, and much of what is currently our most productive farmlands are going to experience increased aridity as global warming continues. Where these two conditions come together there will simply not be enough water resources available locally to sustain production at levels even approaching anything like what we see today. You just can’t grow 10 bushels of corn without 200 liters of water no matter what growing technics you use because there is 200 liters of water in 10 bushels of corn. What I said was it will not be economically feasible to desalinate and transport enough water from the oceans to the areas most affected by draught and aquifer depletion to enable large scale food production in those areas.
There is nothing new about the idea of water wars or mass migrations due to water shortages. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 47% of the world’s population will face high water stress by 2030. In other words in less than 20 years 4 billion people are going to find it difficult to obtain enough fresh water to keep them alive. The IPCC says, "Water and its availability and quality will be the main pressures on and issues for, societies and the environment under climate change." The US Senate is issuing reports with names like Avoiding Water Wars: Water Scarcity and Central Asia’s growing Importance for Stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Former Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon is on record saying the reason for going to war in 1967 was for water. The Georgia State Legislature has proposed invading the state of Tennessee over access to the Tennessee River. It’s an issue (not invasion but access) that came up again just a couple of years ago when the Atlanta area was under a sever draught.
US corn production is expected to be down 15% this year despite a record planting in 2012. This due to a draught measured in weeks. Future climate change is expected to bring draughts measured in years. But that’s all good. There is no need to try to avoid this type of problem. We have pumps and plastic sheeting. We can deal with it when it comes.
The thing I think you keep missing because you have yet to address it is if things that led up to the P-Tr event were so much worse than they are now, why is the data telling us things are happening faster now than they did then? We won’t need flood basalt eruptions if our current activities set off a chain of events that raise the surface temperature 8 C and releases the methane hydrate currently sequestered at the bottom of the oceans. Hell, right now a good volcanic eruption every couple of years would provide a mitigating effect to AGW.
On aquifer depletion, increased aridity and mass migrations. Never once did I even suggest that low water high yield farming technics are not economically feasible. What I said was many of our aquifers are being depleted at unsustainable rates, and much of what is currently our most productive farmlands are going to experience increased aridity as global warming continues. Where these two conditions come together there will simply not be enough water resources available locally to sustain production at levels even approaching anything like what we see today. You just can’t grow 10 bushels of corn without 200 liters of water no matter what growing technics you use because there is 200 liters of water in 10 bushels of corn. What I said was it will not be economically feasible to desalinate and transport enough water from the oceans to the areas most affected by draught and aquifer depletion to enable large scale food production in those areas.
There is nothing new about the idea of water wars or mass migrations due to water shortages. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 47% of the world’s population will face high water stress by 2030. In other words in less than 20 years 4 billion people are going to find it difficult to obtain enough fresh water to keep them alive. The IPCC says, "Water and its availability and quality will be the main pressures on and issues for, societies and the environment under climate change." The US Senate is issuing reports with names like Avoiding Water Wars: Water Scarcity and Central Asia’s growing Importance for Stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Former Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon is on record saying the reason for going to war in 1967 was for water. The Georgia State Legislature has proposed invading the state of Tennessee over access to the Tennessee River. It’s an issue (not invasion but access) that came up again just a couple of years ago when the Atlanta area was under a sever draught.
US corn production is expected to be down 15% this year despite a record planting in 2012. This due to a draught measured in weeks. Future climate change is expected to bring draughts measured in years. But that’s all good. There is no need to try to avoid this type of problem. We have pumps and plastic sheeting. We can deal with it when it comes.
Save a life. Adopt a greyhound.
![[Image: JUkLw58.gif]](https://i.imgur.com/JUkLw58.gif)
