RE: Growing Orthodox influence in Russia
August 17, 2012 at 8:54 pm
(This post was last modified: August 17, 2012 at 9:11 pm by Anomalocaris.)
I also think most western estimate of India's futurr growth rates are overly optimistic, and biased by our ingrained preference that democratic Indian out perform authoritarian china soon. But I think despite its problems India will still grow to an enormous size with next 50 years, easily surpassing all of Europe combined, possible the US as well. She just won't come close to overtaking china in the foreseeable future.
Brazil will be far behind because of her small population compared to India, and her reliance on growth through sales of raw material rather than building the sort of broad based industrial capacity she needs to be a first rank power.
Russia will grow more corrupt, more reliant upon ever fewer points of glitter in her fundamentally soviet bequeathed industrial base, and just gradually be submerged by the general rise of the developing world.
Where russia will be in 20 years, is where I think Ukraine is now. She would still have a few highly competitive and sophisticated industries as a result of soviet military industrial legacy, but overall the economy would be so backward and inefficient that the average income would be solidly in the third world levels.
Look at Ukraine today. She still appear western. Her population highly educated, She can still build spacecraft, advance military jets, and sophisticated gas turbines, all of which are world class or nearly world class. But her overall population's annual income is lower than in china, only a little higher than India.
This is where Russia is headed.
Brazil will be far behind because of her small population compared to India, and her reliance on growth through sales of raw material rather than building the sort of broad based industrial capacity she needs to be a first rank power.
Russia will grow more corrupt, more reliant upon ever fewer points of glitter in her fundamentally soviet bequeathed industrial base, and just gradually be submerged by the general rise of the developing world.
Where russia will be in 20 years, is where I think Ukraine is now. She would still have a few highly competitive and sophisticated industries as a result of soviet military industrial legacy, but overall the economy would be so backward and inefficient that the average income would be solidly in the third world levels.
Look at Ukraine today. She still appear western. Her population highly educated, She can still build spacecraft, advance military jets, and sophisticated gas turbines, all of which are world class or nearly world class. But her overall population's annual income is lower than in china, only a little higher than India.
This is where Russia is headed.
