The US should not intervene in Ukraine!

[Anomalocaris]

1. I don't think the EU/NATO will endure the loss of natural gas.

Russia cannot turn off the spigot without enduring some serious economic consequences itself. Further, last time they did it(2006 and 2009) caused Europe to start diversifying its gas sources and spurred the production of facilities to stock pile gas.

Countries like Germany now have huge stock piles of gas and could send gas to other countries like Ukraine for a while. Also we're in April and Europe needs a less gas then if we were in the middle of winter. The United States is preparing to star exporting gas to Europe in 2015 and those plans are probably being accelerated and expanded. Europe is in a better position now than it was in 2006 and 2009 to endure a short term gas disruption.

Russia's position is strong in this game but not as strong as you think.....especially over the long haul. Sure they have a loaded gun but they have to be concerned about shooting themselves in the foot. In the long run Russia needs to sell gas and they have to worry about creating a need in Europe for it to develop infrastructure that will allow it to boycott Russian gas when it wants.

Actually, Germany gets 35% of its own gas needs from Russia. Germany's only major domestic energy reserve is coal, and very low quality, high polluting coal at that. Coal can not replace natural gas even if Germany reverses all her positions on green house gas and other pollution. If Russian gas stops, German couples will not be able to cook and German grandmothers will freeze to death in their apartments. Europe had no ability to replace Russian gas with domestic production now, and European ones tic politics makes it exceedingly unlikely for it to develop any meaningful capacity in 1, 3, or 5 years.

The United States has surplus natural gas, but this is such a recent development that there is no infrastructure to export any of it. There won't be any infrastructure to export it in 1-2 years, and any infrastructure capacity to export gas that can be built in 5 years would be tiny compared to European consumption of Russian gas.

In a 5 year time horizon, Russian position is powerful.

As to longer term, it is important to recognize Russian regard keeping Ukraine in its orbit as vital to her own existential security for the foreseeable future. A Ukraine outside Russian orbit is more deadly to Russian perception of her own security and freedom of action than soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba had been dangerous to the US in 1960s. It is true on a time horizon longer than 5 years, the west can make Russian feel pain. But rest assured from Russian point of view, the west can not inflict nearly as much pain on Russia as the pain of loss of Ukraine.

So presenting Russia with the option of giving up Ukraine or suffer the worst we can do to it is idiotic. The worst we can do to it won't come close to losing Ukraine, and so will under no circumstances motivate Russia to give up Ukraine. At the same time, inflict ineffectual pain on Russia will most certainly hurt us. And we will suffer it for no possibility if any gain.

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These games and wars are fought over the long term. Russia will need to sell the gas to proper their economic gains. Russia really has no other export.

Another thing Russia has to think about is this: If there is war the pipelines that provide Russia with many economic and strategic benefits are at risk of being destroyed.

If it is destroyed, Europe would be more eager to rebuild it than Russia.