Belief and Certainty

[Magilla]

When I say that I believe something, it does not mean that I am absolutely certain that it is true. I'm not sure that I can say anything with absolute certainty.

If I flip a coin, I will neither believe the claim that it will be heads, nor the claim that it will be tails. However what if the coin is a biased coin. At what stage should I believe that it will be Heads? Traditionally in a scientific test it would be at 95% (2 std dev). However, as far as I'm aware, this is fairly arbitrary (it's 5 sigma for new particle discoveries).

Any thoughts?

What level does a Theist use?

Surely, if you toss that coin repeatedly, making attempts to exclude external bias, then any coin-bias or otherwise, will show up in the ratio of heads to tails. Even then, you might not be absolutely certain.

But if you took a fresh coin, tossed it a few times, and then decided its bias, I'd say it would be much too speculative to lay your house on the line over the next toss.

I suggest that some theists may use logic in what they believe, but it seems likely that most ordinary folks believe, (in "God"), on the basis of feelings. Of course theism is a lot more complex than a coin toss, and the "facts" can made up, misinterpreted, or just plain lied about.