RE: How we determine facts.
January 6, 2015 at 9:15 pm
(This post was last modified: January 6, 2015 at 9:18 pm by The Grand Nudger.)
(January 6, 2015 at 9:08 pm)Heywood Wrote: In the example in the OP there are two propositions:Correct. But you won't know which until you've drawn every marble. Probability is, itself, a heuristic. Not proof. That we engage in this sort of thinking and then feel confident that we have "proof enough" is, again, indicative of nothing more or less than the limitations of our mind and what our minds evolved to do.
Proposition A) All the marbles are white.
Proposition B) Not all the marbles are white.
Only one proposition can be true.
Quote:Each time you draw a marble and find it to be white, while never drawing a marble and finding it to be black.....each time you do that the probability that proposition A is true becomes more likely.Until you draw a non-white one. At which point your 99% probability drops to 0, even though nothing about the bag or the marbles has changed.
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