RE: 4-20 spread limit holdem hand.
February 16, 2015 at 6:24 am
(This post was last modified: February 16, 2015 at 6:44 am by Heywood.)
(February 15, 2015 at 4:52 pm)Cthulhu Dreaming Wrote: (Wait, two limpers? I thought you said there were three?)
I don't know, Heywood, what's your read on the button? What's his read on you? What's his range here? Is he going to call you preflop to outplay you after the flop? Is he ever going to 3 bet back at you with air? Is he gonna lay down a better hand?
Without a read, I'm going to assume he's playing ABC, hit to flop, and I'm folding.
If I him seeing calling your raise to outplay you preflop, then maybe a checkraise is worth a try, but the way you played it, I'm going to fold here a lot of the time, and the only reason I'm ever check calling here is to set up meta for when I have the nuts I want to slow play (and I don't slow play out of the cutoff as a general rule - so let's just say, I'm never calling here). If you're going to check call a marginal made hand, then you probably ought to just bet out in limit. What's your plan if you call? Check call the next two streets?
(In fact, I'm pretty much only check raising with this hand here for meta too).
Frankly, I think this is one of those spots I dislike intensely, and pretty much the number one reason why I want to muck jacks preflop (though, duh, I don't) - although admittedly, a large part of why I hate this position is because of how you played the hand preflop with that weaksauce raise.
Once the limpers fold, you're heads up, out of position, with a meh hand on a wet board. Just fold. This isn't one of those questionable spots.
When that pot went multiway, I had already planned to just check fold if two over cards came on the flop. I folded, he didn't show, but I got the impression I folded the best hand. After a session, I usually pick a hand to do off table work and figured this was a good one.....cause it left a bad taste in my mouth.
The guys cold call range? Figure JJ-22,AQs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo.
This guy makes cold call mistakes before the flop, but plays reasonably well after the flop. There is a monte carlo board so people play at lot of baby pairs and suited connectors against raises. I'm still ahead of most of his range and if we exclude some of the offsuit broadways, I'm even further ahead of his range.
The question is, what range does he take a stab at the pot? I'm sure the guy has seen me check raise before. His bluff only has to work 23% of the time to break even but he has to get thru two bad players who make lots of calling mistakes. Lets say he stabs with this range:
JJ-99,66,AQs-ATs,A6s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,76s,AQo-AJo,KQo
My equity is about 45%(equilab)....I think I should have called this guy down expecting to be beat most of the time.
(February 15, 2015 at 1:05 pm)Cthulhu Dreaming Wrote:(February 15, 2015 at 12:42 pm)Alex K Wrote: This thread is very fascinating. I don't understand a single word. You could all just be writing random stuff as far as I'm concerned...
Alex K is hereby invited to every home game ever.
Alex K is pretty smart. I bet he could be taught in one day enough poker to beat a typical home game.
