2-10 spread limit with overs buttons.

[Heywood]

Principle villain and I have overs buttons in front of us. Whenever the hand involves only people with overs buttons, the spread increases from $2-$10 to $2-$25. Some more background about the villian. Earlier, in a kill pot, he called a preflop raise from me with 35s(s=suited). When the seat on his immediate left opened up, I asked to move to it. I moved to it and notice he folds the next 7-8 hands in a row. But then shows down another hand comprised of suited rags.

I'm on the button. 4 limpers call for 2 dollars. I have AKo(o=offsuit). I raise it to 10. Small blind calls, a middle position player calls, villain to my immediate right calls, and the other limpers fold. Flop comes K 8 K rainbow.

It gets checked to me. I bet $10...the maximum I can bet because people are still in the hand who do not have overs buttons. Everyone folds except the villain on my immediate right who calls. Its heads up and its overs. I smash this flop.....I have position, and I am up against an opponent who will cold call with a pre-flop range that I absolutely crush. Life is pretty good I think.

Turn is 5. Villain checks, I bet $25. Villain takes about 90 seconds and check raises to $50. What is my play? My 3 options are:

Fold
Call
Reraise

What would you do?

[Zen Badger]

I'm guessing you're speaking English because I recognise some of the words.
But apart from that........

[Heywood]

I'm guessing you're speaking English because I recognise some of the words.
But apart from that........

The thread is about the gentleman's game of poker. Writing out hands like this is part of my off table work I do to improve at the game. Some others members of this forum also engage in this game and I like to hear their input.

That being said, I know this isn't a poker forum. If there is anything you need clarified because you are curious let me know and I will try to explain it. If you have questions because you are interested in the game, ask them and I and others will answer them for you.

For those of you who are familiar with the game, If you were the villain and didn't know what my hand is, would check raising as a bluff....basically repping a king when you don't have one.......show a profit or a loss? To be honest, I like this villains check raise even if he whiffed the flop. I think it generates enough folds to show a profit. I just don't know if the villain is capable of thinking at this level.

[Jackalope]

Call and hope he bets into you on the next street, absent other reads.

Yeah, you smashed the flop, and only beat by K8, 88, and 55. I don't raise him back here. Trips is strong, but not that strong, and you don't want to let him off the hook if he's got a weaker king.

If you think he calls down with worse hands after the turn action, value bet the river if he checks.

[Heywood]

Call and hope he bets into you on the next street, absent other reads.

Well I did call. What does raising on the turn accomplish(i thought to myself)? I do get value from worse Kings. He isn't going to fold a better hand and might fold worse ones if I re-raise. Hands like A8 or A5 or pocket 7s, 9s, that kind of stuff might all hit the muck if I reraise his check raise. I also figured that if he was bluffing, he might bet into me again on the river if a brick comes. I call and brick comes.

Villain bets into me. My options are:

Fold
Call
Raise

What would you do?

[Jackalope]

Call. If I raise, and he reraises, I'm going to throw up in my mouth and call. If he folds, I punch kittehs.

I don't like throwing up in my mouth.

[Heywood]

Call. If I raise, and he reraises, I'm going to throw up in my mouth and call. If he folds, I punch kittehs.

I don't like throwing up in my mouth.

He bet $25 into me on the river, I raised to $50 get value from worse King X....which I figure make up the bulk of his range. He re-raises to $75. Its obvious he almost certainly has me beat. But the pot is now $290 dollars after drops and its only $25 to call. I'm getting better than 11.5-1 to call. I make a crying call and he turns over K5 for turned boat.

I know you don't like to throw up in your mouth. I don't either. Its the worst feeling you ever experience in a game.....but I still think the raise by me on the river is the mathematically correct play. If hand like this comes up again, and it surely will, should I play it the same way? Should I feel good about the way I played this hand?

[Jackalope]

The reason I don't raise the river is because pretty much no better hand folds and few worse hands call, and as you saw, better hands will pop you back.

Years ago, I would raise the river. Now I don't with a middle-strength hand like trips, not without a really good read.

[Heywood]

The reason I don't raise the river is because pretty much no better hand folds and few worse hands call, and as you saw, better hands will pop you back.

Years ago, I would raise the river. Now I don't with a middle-strength hand like trips, not without a really good read.

I forgot what the river card was, but the board never scared me. Lets say it was a 2.

What better hands can he have that will pop me back?
88, 55, 22, K8, K5, K2

That is 6 hands. What worse hands can he have that will certainly make a crying call?
KQ, KJ, KT, K9, K7, K6, K4, and K3.

That is 8 hands.

I wins this pot 8 out of 14 times or 57%

He might also have TT, 99, 77, 66, 44, and 33. I never saw him raise preflop so he could also have badly played AA, QQ, JJ. There is a non 0 probability he calls a river raise with any of these hands as well. Lets say there is a 3% chance he calls a river raise with something like that. I think it is fair to say that if I raise this river and he calls, I win 60% of the time. Further, lets assume that if I am beat, he always pops me back and I always just call.

Now we can do some EV(expected value) calculations.

Just calling his bet:
EV = (.60 x $25) - (.40 x $25)
EV = $15 - $10
EV = +$5...whoohoo!

Raising his bet:
EV = (.60 x $50) - (.40 x $75)
EV = $30-$30
EV = $0.....doh!

Hmmm.....all day I have been thinking that river raise was a good move, but getting into some detailed analysis, it looks like it is break even at best.

[Jackalope]

It's not necessarily bad (it's read dependent), I just find that raising for value here is really thin. If he'll call with a fair part of his range here, sure. It really, really depends on reads, and what you've provided doesn't make me want to deviate from what I'd usually do, which is turn my hand into a bluff catcher. The way the turn was played, I expect him to have a big hand a lot of the time.