RE: 4-20 spread limit holdem hand.
February 17, 2015 at 4:21 pm
(This post was last modified: February 17, 2015 at 4:30 pm by Heywood.)
(February 17, 2015 at 12:16 pm)Cthulhu Dreaming Wrote: Absent a read on UTG, I don't like calling a limp reraise with AQo, but I assume your reason was sound, so ignore me on that minor critique.
Her limp check raise didn't scare me like it would if it came from another player....But at the time I am still putting her in the premium hand range in my head. This is the hand I have chosen to do some off table work.....so let lets do some. I use equilab to do a lot of my off table work. If you don't know what equilab is watch this:
UTG's Assumed Range: JJ+,AKs,AKo
My Range: AQo
Kid's Assumed Range: JJ-22,AQs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AQo-A2o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o
Plug those ranges into Equilab and it tells us:
UTG wins: 56.43%
I wins: 23.13%
Kid wins: 20.43%
When I am faced with the limp check raise I figure the kid will call behind me and close the action. Because I assume the kid will call behind me, I can figure I am getting 5.6 to 1 on the call. With those pot odds I need to win 15.15% of the time to break even. Since I win 23.13% of the time, it is a good call. If the kid folds, I am getting 4.6 to 1 on the call and need to win 17.86% of the time to break even and according to equilab I win 28.15% of the time if he folds......still a good call.
The problem with this analysis is equilab assumes we always go to a showdown. In real life poker that is very often not the case. Still with the kid in the pot, I think I am more than okay calling the limp check raise.
