Here is how i see it.
Human population growth is a false problem: our increasing rate has been decreasing (sic) and we are going to slow down, peak (by the next century maybe) and then slowly decrease until we find a balance with our environment. This may take some hundreds years, maybe lots of people will die in horrible ways meanwhile, but i'm pretty sure this is what will happen to us as a population in the very long term. No sudden catastrophes or climate changes will make the population plummet in few years, it's just a matter of time.
Just look at the milestones of the human growth:
We reached the 2 billions in 127 years (from 1 billion),
33 years to get 2 then,
14 years to get 3 billions,
13 years to get 5 b,
12 years to get 6 b, and.......
Other 12 years to get 7 b!
The current rate of increase is expected to make us reach the 8, 9 an 10th billion in 14, 18 and 40 years.
We are clearly slowing down, and our population won't just stop rising at one point and stay there. We will be too many. One day we will start decreasing. And with the population, the rate of extinction and the air pollution will decrease too. Also, more space will be left to nature and new forests (the number of trees worldwide is already increasing) will completely absorb the exceeding CO2 and reset (roughly) to the pre-industrial age the average temperatures of the atmosphere.
Then, we will find a balance and our civilization will potentially be eternal. Until the next ice age/asteroid/invasive species/really bad luck of any kind.
Okay, i admit, maybe all that stuff won't happen and we will keep growing indefinitely or be wiped out all of a sudden or whatever, but as far as i know from my population dynamics studies this is, to me, the most likely scenario of our future.
Human population growth is a false problem: our increasing rate has been decreasing (sic) and we are going to slow down, peak (by the next century maybe) and then slowly decrease until we find a balance with our environment. This may take some hundreds years, maybe lots of people will die in horrible ways meanwhile, but i'm pretty sure this is what will happen to us as a population in the very long term. No sudden catastrophes or climate changes will make the population plummet in few years, it's just a matter of time.
Just look at the milestones of the human growth:
We reached the 2 billions in 127 years (from 1 billion),
33 years to get 2 then,
14 years to get 3 billions,
13 years to get 5 b,
12 years to get 6 b, and.......
Other 12 years to get 7 b!
The current rate of increase is expected to make us reach the 8, 9 an 10th billion in 14, 18 and 40 years.
We are clearly slowing down, and our population won't just stop rising at one point and stay there. We will be too many. One day we will start decreasing. And with the population, the rate of extinction and the air pollution will decrease too. Also, more space will be left to nature and new forests (the number of trees worldwide is already increasing) will completely absorb the exceeding CO2 and reset (roughly) to the pre-industrial age the average temperatures of the atmosphere.
Then, we will find a balance and our civilization will potentially be eternal. Until the next ice age/asteroid/invasive species/really bad luck of any kind.
Okay, i admit, maybe all that stuff won't happen and we will keep growing indefinitely or be wiped out all of a sudden or whatever, but as far as i know from my population dynamics studies this is, to me, the most likely scenario of our future.
"I cannot persuade myself that a beneficent & omnipotent God would have designedly created the Ichneumonidæ with the express intention of their feeding within the living bodies of caterpillars, or that a cat should play with mice."
Charles Robert Darwin, Letter to Asa Gray (22 may 1860)
Charles Robert Darwin, Letter to Asa Gray (22 may 1860)
