RE: 2-10 spread limit with overs buttons.
February 26, 2015 at 8:47 pm
(This post was last modified: February 26, 2015 at 9:35 pm by Heywood.)
(February 26, 2015 at 8:32 pm)Cthulhu Dreaming Wrote: The reason I don't raise the river is because pretty much no better hand folds and few worse hands call, and as you saw, better hands will pop you back.
Years ago, I would raise the river. Now I don't with a middle-strength hand like trips, not without a really good read.
I forgot what the river card was, but the board never scared me. Lets say it was a 2.
What better hands can he have that will pop me back?
88, 55, 22, K8, K5, K2
That is 6 hands. What worse hands can he have that will certainly make a crying call?
KQ, KJ, KT, K9, K7, K6, K4, and K3.
That is 8 hands.
I wins this pot 8 out of 14 times or 57%
He might also have TT, 99, 77, 66, 44, and 33. I never saw him raise preflop so he could also have badly played AA, QQ, JJ. There is a non 0 probability he calls a river raise with any of these hands as well. Lets say there is a 3% chance he calls a river raise with something like that. I think it is fair to say that if I raise this river and he calls, I win 60% of the time. Further, lets assume that if I am beat, he always pops me back and I always just call.
Now we can do some EV(expected value) calculations.
Just calling his bet:
EV = (.60 x $25) - (.40 x $25)
EV = $15 - $10
EV = +$5...whoohoo!
Raising his bet:
EV = (.60 x $50) - (.40 x $75)
EV = $30-$30
EV = $0.....doh!
Hmmm.....all day I have been thinking that river raise was a good move, but getting into some detailed analysis, it looks like it is break even at best.
