NFL playoffs thread

[Jackalope]

With the first playoff berth being locked up in last night's game, I figured it's high time to start looking forward to what the NFL playoff picture looks like.

NFC West and the road to the Super Bowl - Although Seattle has only officially clinched *a* playoff berth, I think a good argument can be made that the road to the Super Bowl goes through Seattle this year in the NFC. Four games remain. While Seattle (11-1) only has a two game lead over New Orleans (9-3) and Carolina (9-3), they own the tiebreaker for both - and so would have to lose three games to not have home field advantage over either. Furthermore, Seattle has a three game lead over San Francisco (8-4). S.F. *must* beat Seattle at home next week to have any chance of more than a wildcard berth - if they lose, they have to win out the remainder of the season, Seattle must lose the remainder of their games, and Seattle wins the tiebreaker. If Seattle wins, they have the division title locked up and a No. 1 seed all but locked up - and the bye and home field advantage that goes along with it. I do not expect Seattle will lose this one after how they manhandled New Orleans. Projection - Seattle wins the division and a #1 seed, S.F. wins the #6 seed.

NFC South - New Orleans (9-3) and Carolina (9-3) are deadlocked, and play each other twice in the next three weeks. Projection - One will win the division and the #2 seed, the other a wildcard berth and the #5 seed. No one else in the division is even remotely close.

NFC North and East - Damn near anything can happen here. Washington (3-9) and Minnesota (3-8-1) appear to be mathematically eliminated - but no one else is more than two games behind their division leader. Projection - no one in either division is likely to win a wildcard, and the division titles (and corresponding #3 and #4 seeds) are up for grabs - Detroit and Dallas currently lead. The division winners will face very tough opponents in the wildcard round.

Obviously, Carolina, New Orleans, and Seattle have the best shot at representing the NFC in the Super Bowl - and fanboyism aside, it appears that Seattle has the best chance of coming out on top.

[The Reality Salesman01]

After watching Seattle dismantle The Saints last night, they appear to be the most likely Super Bowl contender from the NFC. Carolina has been getting pretty hot, although of all the QBs that are closing in on NFC playoff spots, I'm least convinced by Cam Newton. Not only that, but their receiving core is underwhelming and nowhere near as explosive as a few of the others. If Washington had a better line, and a stronger defense, they would be Carolina, but with better recievers and a smaller QB.

That being said, I'll throw in my 2 cents on the NFC East. Dallas *reluctant sigh*, I want to think they're capable, but their O line is abismal, but it's nothing compared to their secondary. When Sean Lee and Demarcus Ware are healthy, they're as good against the run as anybody. But, there's not a member of the Dallas secondary that's worth a wet fart when a play extends 10 yds the line of scrimmage. Their secondary is a joke. They're among the bottom of the league in almost every defensive category. In order for Dallas to stay in a game, Romo has to outplay every opposing QB. He's got weapons-Witten, Bryant, and Murray are all viable offensive threats, but they're extremely inconsistent. Nick Foles, however, is on FIRE. 19/0 TD-INT Ratio! What?!! Lesean McCoy and Desean Jackson are as explosive as they come, but as Philly hasn't been able to convincingly put games to bed once they've secured comfortable leads. Their Defense, like Dallas, gives up some big plays at some pretty bad times. Dallas is undefeated in the division so far, and they've got one game left to play against Philly. While I can't count The Giants out, their schedule is much tougher than Philly or Dallas, and it seems like it's going to be determined by whatever versions of those two teams show up to play. I'd like to say Dallas, but history points to that being unreliable.

If Dallas miraculously starts firing on all cylinders, they can hang some points on the board. The same can be said for Philly. However, neither team shows the potential for going very deep even once they've secured a spot.

Green Bay could pose a threat to whichever team they face if Rodgers gets healthy, Cutler could give the Bears a boost if he can keep his uterus injuries under control. But as of now, Detroit seems to have the most upside.

It's gonna be fun to watch, I'm still chewing over the AFC, I'll let you know where I'm at there later! Peace!

[Jackalope]

Nice analysis. Whichever teams come out on top of the NFC North and East - they will not get deep in the playoffs if they don't get their shit together and find some consistency.

I was thinking about breaking down the AFC as well, though it looks fairly obvious at this point who's in and who's out. With the exception of the AFC West, all of the division leaders have a 2-3 game lead - pretty obvious who the favorites are there. In the AFC West it's going to be Denver, and pretty much everyone knows it (excepting perhaps those in the Kansas City region). KC will be the #5 seed.

The only real question in the AFC is: Which team is going to end up with the #6 seed and a flight home after losing on the road in the wildcard round?

Projection - 1) Denver 2) New England 3) Indianapolis 4) Cincinnati 5) Kansas City

6) ?????

[Tonus]

I was stunned to see the Seahawks shut down New Orleans the way they did, especially when they were missing their second and third CB. When you can hold Drew Brees to 147 passing yards with your third and fourth CBs in the game, you've got a ridiculous amount of depth in the secondary. They have two road games coming up (SF and NYG) and two road games to close out the season (ARZ and STL). They need to go at least 2-2 to lock up home field the rest of the way (they own tiebreakers over the two other teams that can finish with 13 wins). I am hopeful that they can finish 3-1, with the likeliest loss coming in SF and the second-likeliest in NY.

I would be surprised if NO doesn't bounce back from this and win the division. They have two games against Carolina and I think they'll win them both. I think they're good enough to do that. I'll need to take a closer look at the other team schedules to get a better idea of how the rest of the slots shape up.

The road to the AFC championship goes through Denver, and if they wind up facing New England, ooooooh... I'll have to wait until then to make a prediction.

[Faith No More]

The NFC North is the Lions' to lose unless Chicago gets its shit together, which doesn't seem likely given it just lost to Minnesota. The Lions are the Lions' worst enemy. On paper, they're easily a 12-4 team this year, but not playing up to their capabilities has left them at 7-5 at this point in the season. If they show up to their final four games, they won't have any problem taking first.

Other than the NFC North, however, I haven't really been paying attention to how the different divisions are playing out.

[Jackalope]

I was stunned to see the Seahawks shut down New Orleans the way they did, especially when they were missing their second and third CB. When you can hold Drew Brees to 147 passing yards with your third and fourth CBs in the game, you've got a ridiculous amount of depth in the secondary.

They are ridiculously in the secondary. Well-kept secret until now. I was not expecting the Seahawks/Saints game to be an ass-kicking - I thought it would be decided by one or at most two scores. Holding an explosive offense like the Saints to 147 passing yards, 44 rushing yards, 12 first downs, and a single score - that's quite an accomplishment.

It's also clear that Russell Wilson is frighteningly talented for a second-year quarterback. I don't want to speculate too much, but I'm quite pleased that Seattle *finally* drafted a quarterback who shows this much promise - and delivers.

They have two road games coming up (SF and NYG) and two home games to close out the season (ARZ and STL). They need to go at least 2-2 to lock up home field the rest of the way (they own tiebreakers over the two other teams that can finish with 13 wins). I am hopeful that they can finish 3-1, with the likeliest loss coming in SF and the second-likeliest in NY.

Correction mine, in bold above.

I'm looking for them to finish up 4-0, and I share your concern about the SF game. SF desperately needs the win to keep hopes for a division title, they want revenge for the ass-whipping they got in Seattle, and there is no love lost between the two teams. The Giants are simply a long road trip to play a cold-weather game against a mediocre opponent - but it is easy for anyone to lose on the road under such conditions.

Neither team is playing their best football, however, and we've beaten better at home and on the road. There is a question in my mind as to whether Pete Carrol will have his starters lay up once the #1 seed is locked up.

All I want for Christmas is a 15-1 season.

I would be surprised if NO doesn't bounce back from this and win the division. They have two games against Carolina and I think they'll win them both. I think they're good enough to do that. I'll need to take a closer look at the other team schedules to get a better idea of how the rest of the slots shape up.

I'm not so sure about that. I do expect NO to win the division, though I think it likely that they'll split the series. NO could win both, I think it unlikely that Carolina can. Anything can happen, though.

The road to the AFC championship goes through Denver, and if they wind up facing New England, ooooooh... I'll have to wait until then to make a prediction.

That much is clear, and it's also clear that KC is not as good as their record would indicate, although they are still a very tough team and will be a formidable opponent for whomever faces them in the wildcard round. I believe that NE has a very good shot at going deep in the postseason.

[Jackalope]

The NFC North is the Lions' to lose unless Chicago gets its shit together, which doesn't seem likely given it just lost to Minnesota. The Lions are the Lions' worst enemy. On paper, they're easily a 12-4 team this year, but not playing up to their capabilities has left them at 7-5 at this point in the season. If they show up to their final four games, they won't have any problem taking first.

Other than the NFC North, however, I haven't really been paying attention to how the different divisions are playing out.

I don't disagree - the Lions have far more talent than their record would seem to indicate, which appears to be a perennial problem for them. I've said in prior the problems with the Lions are not in the on-field personnel, and I see no reason to change that assessment.

They're fortunate this year that despite themselves, they're in the division lead - the NFC North is just a huge mess. The Packers and the Bears are injury-ridden and drifting aimlessly, and the Vikings just plain suck. Had Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler not both been injured in November, the NFC North picture would certainly be more muddled.

As I said earlier, I wish the Lions all the best in picking up a playoff win this year, but man, it's a bad year to be a #3 or #4 seed in the NFC. I will be rooting for Detroit, though - right up until the point where Seattle might be playing them, because I know how that playoff victory drought feels - the Seahawks went ~20 years without one. The Lions fans could use a victory.

[Tonus]

It's also clear that Russell Wilson is frighteningly talented for a second-year quarterback. I don't want to speculate too much, but I'm quite pleased that Seattle *finally* drafted a quarterback who shows this much promise - and delivers.

I shudder when I think about how close we were to having Matt Flynn as the starter for these past two seasons. The Seahawks would probably have been able to win enough games to pretend that he was good enough (good run game, great defense). Getting Wilson in the third round was sheer genius; you get a top-level QB at a bargain rate, which allowed them to sign guys like Avril (who stripped Brees of the ball, leading to the first TD in the MNF game).

Aside from the high level of confidence that any QB needs to succeed in the NFL, Wilson has an incredible arm and a throwing motion that should really get more attention than it does. His throwing motion is very quick and very compact. He brings the ball up along his body and slingshots it once he's got it in position. It allows him to throw on the run with very little adjustment and still deliver a hard and accurate throw. He made two or three of those against NO, throws where he had only a fraction of a second to throw and delivered a near-perfect ball to his receivers. He may actually have a quicker release than Dan Marino (and I grew up watching Marino torch the NFL).

He's very mobile but avoids the problem that so many running QBs have, which is that they take off if their first read is covered. He uses his feet to give himself and his receivers more time, and with that throwing motion he can complete passes on the move and into small windows. I think he will still occasionally scramble too much and waste an opportunity, but he seems to be learning very quickly. Smart, athletic, and far more savvy than his years. He has been fun to watch and I think we haven't seen his best yet.

[Jackalope]

I agree. I'm cautiously optimistic that his best years are ahead. Hasselbeck showed some promise, but didn't exactly deliver. Wilson is the best thing to happen since the days of Dave Krieg and Curt Warner.

[Jackalope]

A couple of weeks later, things aren't necessarily any more clear, although a few more teams have locked up their berths, and one team has locked up a division title.

AFC

In: Broncos [x] (11-3), Chiefs [x] (11-3), Colts [y] (9-5)
In the hunt: Patriots (10-4), Dolphins (8-6), Bengals (9-5)
Outside looking in: Ravens (7-6), Chargers (7-7), Steelers, (6-8) Jets (6-8)

The Broncos and Chiefs still have not settled things. Denver owns the tiebreaker - KC needs to win, and needs Denver to lose at least one more game. Before Denver's loss to the Chargers at home, I would have thought that unthinkable. Still, despite stumbling, Denver is the favorite to host the AFC title game - should they get there.

The Colts are in by virtue of clinching their division, but will need plenty of help to earn a wildcard round bye. Stranger things have happened. Who'd have thunk a 5 loss team would be the first to clinch their division, while divisions featuring teams with two and three losses are still in question?

The Patriots loss to the Dolphins was huge - had the Patriots won, they had a real possibility of home field advantage, but now they need some help from Denver and KC. With the win, the Fins are in, for now.

The Ravens have a chance tonight to close the gap with the division-leading Bengals. With some help, they can still win the AFC North, and they still have a chance of taking over the wildcard seat that the Dolphins currently occupy.

While the Steelers and Jets aren't mathematically eliminated, they need a whole bunch of help to get in.

NFC

In: Seahawks [x] (12-2)
In the hunt: Saints (10-4), Eagles (8-6), Bears (8-6), Panthers (10-4), 49ers (10-4)
Outside looking in: Cardinals (9-5), Lions (7-6), Packers (7-6-1), Cowboys (7-7)

The Seahawks control their own destiny for the division, the first round bye, and home field advantage throughout; they hold the head-to-head tiebreakers against the Saints and Panthers, and can only lose a tie-breaker to the 49ers by losing their remaining two games and SF winning theirs. The NFC road to the Super Bowl still goes through Seattle.

SF needs help to win the NFC west in the form of two Seattle losses, otherwise the best they'll get is a wildcard berth.

Next week's Saints v. Panthers game should settle the dispute of the NFC South, and decide who's going to get a bye, and who's going to have to settle for a wildcard. Neither team can earn home field throughout, but in terms of the division title and a bye, both control their own destiny - for now.

At the bottom of the pile, the Cardinals need some help from SF to get in, and the Lions, Packers and Cowboys are still in contention for their hotly contested divisions. Each team needs to win and needs some help from the outside - and the scenarios are more complicated than I care to go into at the moment. To the delight of Lions fans, the Packers' hopes are kept alive, thanks to keeping themselves in a close game, and Tony Roma's implosion on Sunday. Apparently Roma's postseason choking came a little early this year.

While the NFC North and East aren't quite as up for grabs as they were, there's still a lot of uncertainty - and it will be entertaining to see how it unfolds.