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The Monty Hall problem
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That video finally helped me understand the logic behind the solution. That problem was bothering me for awhile.
freedomfromfallacy » I'm weighing my tears to see if the happy ones weigh the same as the sad ones.
Imagine if there were 1000 cards and 998 were removed.
It only seems like a problem because there's 3 doors. If you use a deck of cards, people understand it pretty quickly.
Actually, this video was the first time I understood it either.
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I wonder how often we make suboptimal decisions in real life because we overlook this effect!
(March 19, 2014 at 4:17 pm)Alex K Wrote: I wonder how often we make suboptimal decisions in real life because we overlook this effect! What effect would that be? RE: The Monty Hall problem
March 19, 2014 at 5:00 pm
(This post was last modified: March 19, 2014 at 5:00 pm by Alex K.)
(March 19, 2014 at 4:48 pm)rasetsu Wrote:(March 19, 2014 at 4:17 pm)Alex K Wrote: I wonder how often we make suboptimal decisions in real life because we overlook this effect! Imagine you have to make some choice, like buy a car or choose a course of action out of several possible, and you know that one of them is probably wrong. Then you are shown that one of the other possible courses of action which you have not decided to pursue is also successful. Will you change your mind or remain with the course of action you had decided upon. This may be vague, I just want to propose that variations of he monty hall problem can appear in everyday life in abstract form, and it could influence the way we deal with new information if we understand it properly.  RE: The Monty Hall problem
March 20, 2014 at 9:22 am
(This post was last modified: March 20, 2014 at 9:24 am by Fidel_Castronaut.)
There was a study done on this I remember reading whereby a researcher proposed the problem to a variety of graduates from all fields to see what their logic was in making a decision.
Astoundingly, the vast majority of people 'stuck' with their choice, despite the decreasing odds in their favour of winning the prize. Was pretty interesting. I'll try and dig it out, think it was in a newspaper of some sort. Was interesting reading the responses by people.  RE: The Monty Hall problem
April 13, 2014 at 1:58 pm
(This post was last modified: April 13, 2014 at 2:01 pm by Coffee Jesus.)
I think a tree diagram is the most universal explanation. You can explain what the diagram means in whatever words you like.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_diagr..._theory%29 |
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