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Atheist Forums › Science › Mathematics v
The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem

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The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
Mr.wizard Offline
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#121
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:08 am (This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 10:08 am by Mr.wizard.)
Ya this is a lost cause
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ErGingerbreadMandude Offline
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#122
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:09 am
(March 13, 2016 at 10:07 am)Mr.wizard Wrote:
(March 13, 2016 at 9:59 am)pool the great Wrote: The chances of you getting a goat behind the door you initially chose is not 50-50 given that you don't know what's behind all the three doors. However after you know that behind one of a door there isn't a car, your chance of having chosen a car or goat initially essentially becomes 50-50

Wow I don't think you understand how this game works at all. He is never going to open a car, he will always open a goat because he knows whats behind the doors.

Says who?
The question don't.
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ErGingerbreadMandude Offline
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#123
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:10 am
Holy shit I can't believe I said that. Retract that statement. Retract retract.
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Mr.wizard Offline
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#124
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:10 am
(March 13, 2016 at 10:09 am)pool the great Wrote:
(March 13, 2016 at 10:07 am)Mr.wizard Wrote: Wow I don't think you understand how this game works at all. He is never going to open a car, he will always open a goat because he knows whats behind the doors.

Says who?
The question don't.

Its the Monty Hall problem, from "let's make a deal", It's how the game is played.
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ErGingerbreadMandude Offline
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#125
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:12 am
(March 13, 2016 at 10:10 am)Mr.wizard Wrote:
(March 13, 2016 at 10:09 am)pool the great Wrote: Says who?
The question don't.

Its the Monty Hall problem, from "let's make a deal", It's how the game is played.

OK sorry about that, I didn't read your post properly before replying.

Of course I know that the door the host opens won't have a car behind it.
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Excited Penguin Offline
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#126
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:14 am
Can anyone answer a simple question?

Why do you think initially it's 1/3 to pick a car?
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ErGingerbreadMandude Offline
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#127
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:16 am
(March 13, 2016 at 10:14 am)Excited Penguin Wrote: Can anyone answer a simple question?

Why do you think initially it's 1/3 to pick a car?

Because there is one car and 3 options to pick from
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ErGingerbreadMandude Offline
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#128
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:21 am (This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 10:22 am by ErGingerbreadMandude.)
This is my final post for objecting why you guys are wrong. If you still don't get it, then idk wtf

If you pick a car in your first try then you will not get a car if you switch.

Therefore it is beneficial to switch only if you initially randomly choose a door with a goat behind it.

After the host opens a door behind which you will find a goat, you will have a 50-50 chance to have initially chosen a goat.

Since you have a 50-50 chance of having chosen a goat initially, you have a 50-50 chance of getting a car if you switch.

Therefore it is not beneficial to switch.
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ErGingerbreadMandude Offline
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#129
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:32 am (This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 10:33 am by ErGingerbreadMandude.)
But do I get a thank you note? Some appreciation? At least a Nobel prize? No.
Dammit. Tongue
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Homeless Nutter Offline
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#130
RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 10:37 am
(March 13, 2016 at 10:21 am)pool the great Wrote: [...]
Since you have a 50-50 chance of having chosen a goat initially, [...]

LOL... How do you figure that? Since initially you were choosing from 3 doors, behind which there are 2 goats and 1 car - therefore you have a 66-33 chance of having initially chosen the goat. It does not matter, that one of the goat-doors was opened afterwards - your chances of having picked a goat are the same.
"The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one." - George Bernard Shaw
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Atheist Forums › Science › Mathematics v
The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem

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