UK Brexit, questions from an American

[account_inactive]

Newcastle-upon-Tyne voted to remain.

[account_inactive]

Apparently my city and a few others won't be counted until 5AM or so. It's going to be a long night.

[Jackalope]

According to the Telegraph, Brexit campaigners have conceded defeat.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/...ults-live/

[account_inactive]

According to the Telegraph, Brexit campaigners have conceded defeat.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/...ults-live/

No, a couple of them have said they might lose. It's way too early to say yet though. Leave is ahead at the moment.

[account_inactive]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-i...d-analysis

[SofaKingHigh]

Small and vulnerable Island?  5th biggest economy in the world, I hardly think so.

...because of our membership in the EU.

We joined the EU for free-trade, nothing more.

Not quite. We joined because of the economic problems of the 70's: the recovery and success of other European nations after WW2 made it increasingly difficult for us to maintain growth. Combined with the threat from emerging economies and the increasing mobility of money and people, globally, it was clear that the UK would play second-fiddle in almost every trade deal if we didn't join. We joined because we wanted to remain a world-leading economy.

What we have now is an overly bloated, non-democratic organisation...

It is bloated and arguably corrupt but those are recent and temporary problems, dependent on the values and practices of the individuals who are in key positions. Once those people change, so will the corruption and we can get involved in that process by voting in candidates from our nation who want to tackle those issues, expose the corruption and ensure appropriate bureaucracy. To do that, the general public need to get more involved in EU politics not less. At the moment, we're mainly represented by UKIP and their self-serving, reductionist, right-wing policies that only serve to worsen the problems!

...infiltrating nearly every area of our lives. If the UK has a law that directly contradicts an EU mandate, guess which wins?

You say that as if it's a bad thing. EU legislation is directly responsible for past economic growth and the security of our economic future. Yes, there are questionable policies such as fishing & agriultural and we seem to have lucked out by not joining the Euro but we can't influence EU legislation from the outside. You have to be in it to win it!

We're told that we will face economic disaster if we leave, horse shit.

Not disaster, that's just propaganda however the downturn would be steep and sustained. The UK would be poor and we're talking 1920/30's poor here, for decades. Your pension? Forget it. Most/All that money will be 'lost' in order to maintain the profitability of organisations that will unashamedly feed off the removal of the worker's protections currently afforded by EU membership. You thought the Big Banking Buy-outs following the last recession were unethical and financially damaging? You ain't seen nothin' yet. We'd survive but we'd take steps backwards financially, with associated damage to our social and cultural infrastructures.

The UK created more jobs in the last 5 years than the rest of the remaining 27 member states combined.   Does anybody seriously think that trade with the EU would just stop if we left?  We are their biggest customer, not China, not the US, the UK.  We love buying German cars, French cheese and wine.....they won't want that to stop, for their own sakes.

And we would still be able to do so, at a much higher price. Moreover, we'd be exporting at a reduced rate. That means less money for us to invest in creating jobs, on public services, infrastructure investment, NHS, education etc.. Like I said, we'd survive, no doubt...

Junker and his cronies have made no secret of their plans of a federal Europe.  I want no part of a union that includes countries as Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and the likes.  This is in no way meant to disrespect any of those nations, but our economies and political situation have about as much in common with these countries as we do Afghanistan.

The whole point of bodies like the EU is to take advantage of our differences to create strength in unity. Like it or not, the people living in those nations have very similar interests to us: life, liberty, family etc.. It's the people who are important here and we're more similar than you think.

The UK currently has no trade deals with India, Canada, China.....we can't, because that has to come from the EU, leave and negotiate our own, anybody trying to scare us into thinking we couldn't are so far wrong it's funny.

Once again, that's the wole point. We don't need separate trade deals because we can bargain much more strongly as a single entity! Do you think China will give us the same terms as we currently have if we leave? What about the US, where the UK are the principle influencer that they have in European affairs (thanks to our 'special relationship')? Think they'll be happy with Brexit and give us the terms we want? What about the EU who we'll have pissed off?

It's not 'the end of European politics as we know it!!", "the cause of World War 3!!!", "the opportunity the China's been waiting for!!" or any of the other extreme 'Stay' rhetoric that's been touted however Brexit's not a pretty picture to imagine.

I don't want to burst your bubble here Ben, but we were the 5th largest economy in the world in 1973.  Feel free to check yourself.  We have actually dropped as low as 7th very recently.

You can micro-analyse the reasons for joining, the world was a very different place in 1973, but we signed up to a trade agreement, nothing more.  The why's are irrelevant.

It is bloated, it is corrupt and as we have been shown already, pretty much every attempt at reform or change has been laughed off.  Once we were a member of an 8 country group where we could actually effect change.  That isn't the case anymore.  And Ben, we're not "mainly represented" by UKIP, they have 9 MEPS out of our 73.

Ben, 'questionable' policies?  Seriously?  'Protectionist'or 'corrupt' would be words better used to describe the EU's agricultural and fishing policies, because that is what they are.

Also, Ben....can you name me one law that is "directly responsible " for past economic growth.  I'm sorry, but that is just nonsense.  It simply is not true.

1920's poor.......absolute, total and utter nonsense.  Again.  Sorry Ben, it just is.,  I've heard Cameron quoted as saying that leaving the EU could precipitate the start of World War 3.....if that were true, and if us leaving the EU could take Britain back to the days of the great depression......why in the name of fuck would they leave it to the British Public to decide?

Nonsense.

Ben, we are Germany's biggest market.  My BMW will cost me the same in 5 years as it does now, I guarantee it.  We will likely even have the same freedom of movement.  Look to Norway, Switzerland, this is likely how it will play out for the UK.  We will pay the EU for access to the free markets, with all the furore around how much we pay, we will probably have to pay nearly as much as we do now,  Norway currently pay just less than we do now per capita.

I was born in Germany, lived in Switzerland.  I love Europe.  I hate the way Brexit voters are being painted the same way as fucking Trump voters.  I have never voted Tory, hate 90% of what UKIP stand for, but I don't want to be ruled from Brussels by people I have nothing in common with.  

I'm genuinely sorry for those who wanted to stay in, I am, but the next 10-20 years will show all those doomsday predictions for what they are; hyperbolic nonsense.

[Homeless Nutter]

I don't want to burst your bubble here Ben, but we were the 5th largest economy in the world in 1973.  Feel free to check yourself.  We have actually dropped as low as 7th very recently.[...]

I'm sorry, but where did you get those numbers? Because I did check and it doesn't appear to be true. Britain's currently listed as world's 5th largest economy (by GDP), behind USA, China, Japan and Germany.
http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/

On the other hand in 1973, UK GDP was behind those of: USA, USSR, Japan, China, Germany and France, so - 7th.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re..._GDP_(PPP)

Would you care to provide your sources?

[SofaKingHigh]

I don't want to burst your bubble here Ben, but we were the 5th largest economy in the world in 1973.  Feel free to check yourself.  We have actually dropped as low as 7th very recently.[...]

I'm sorry, but where did you get those numbers? Because I did check and it doesn't appear to be true. Britain's currently listed as world's 5th largest economy (by GDP), behind USA, China, Japan and Germany.
http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/

On the other hand in 1973, UK GDP was behind those of: USA, USSR, Japan, China, Germany and France, so - 7th.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_re..._GDP_(PPP)

Would you care to provide your sources?

Crack on, each year up until 2014.

http://en.classora.com/reports/t24369/ge...011&fields=

From memory, I actually thought we were 4th around that time, but I was wrong it seems.

Check 2011, we were 7th.

[Homeless Nutter]

Crack on, each year up until 2014.

http://en.classora.com/reports/t24369/ge...011&fields= [...]

Riiiight... Any idea why USSR is nowhere on that list, regardless of year? I seem to remember, that it was quite a big player in the world economy, at one point or another.

From memory, I actually thought we were 4th around that time, but I was wrong it seems.

Check 2011, we were 7th.

Also, 6th in the late 80's - early 90's, according to this particular webpage, except USSR was still a thing at the time. This ranking seems a bit arbitrary and doesn't quite agree with what I'm seeing on wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank...ies_by_GDP). I'm not saying, that wikipedia is a very reliable source, but at least it knows about Russia's existence...

[SofaKingHigh]

Crack on, each year up until 2014.

http://en.classora.com/reports/t24369/ge...011&fields= [...]

Riiiight... Any idea why USSR is nowhere on that list, regardless of year? I seem to remember, that it was quite a big player in the world economy, at one point or another.

From memory, I actually thought we were 4th around that time, but I was wrong it seems.

Check 2011, we were 7th.

Also, 6th in the late 80's - early 90's, according to this particular webpage, except USSR was still a thing at the time. This ranking seems a bit arbitrary and doesn't quite agree with what I'm seeing on wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank...ies_by_GDP). I'm not saying, that wikipedia is a very reliable source, but at least it knows about Russia's existence...

 
I have no idea, I did notice that myself after seeing yours, but as it is missing from both, it doesn't seem to make much difference.

Besides, the point still stands, our position in the world economy has remained pretty constant, EU or not.  Argue minutae all you like.

I understand that, as a leave voter, I am a racist, a bigot, definitely not educated to any standard......watching the foamy mouthed reaction to all this is quite astounding.  

The majority of the voting British public wanted out.  Anybody thinking those 16m+ voters are all uneducated racists are, quite frankly, fucking morons.