Posts: 7568
Threads: 20
Joined: July 26, 2013
Reputation:
54
RE: NFL 2016 Pick'em League!
January 8, 2017 at 9:11 pm
(January 8, 2017 at 8:59 pm)SteelCurtain Wrote: As they throw yet another pick and extend the Packers winning streak to 7.
I hope the Pack destroys Dallas next week.
Me too.
I picked the Packers to go on to beat Dallas and it just now occurred to me that my hatred of the Cowboys is such that I picked an underdog pretty much out of hopeful spite.
If this year's SB comes down to the fucking Cowboys and the Patriots, I might just skip the whole thing and do something more constructive -- like expose myself at the dog park.
Posts: 15351
Threads: 118
Joined: January 13, 2014
Reputation:
117
RE: NFL 2016 Pick'em League!
January 8, 2017 at 9:14 pm
(This post was last modified: January 8, 2017 at 9:18 pm by SteelCurtain.)
The #1 seed has won 23 of the 50 super bowls so far, and 46 #1 seeds have made it to the Super Bowl.
Being the #1 seed in itself says something about the team, so whether they win because of home field advantage is hard to judge. They were the best team in their respective divisions for a reason. But teams historically have a better record at home than away, so it does play a factor.
http://www.espn.com/blog/playbook/visual...ds-succeed
ETA: The last three seasons weren't included on the above infographic, but all three seasons saw two #1 seeds meeting in the Super Bowl, with a #1 seed obviously winning.
"There remain four irreducible objections to religious faith: that it wholly misrepresents the origins of man and the cosmos, that because of this original error it manages to combine the maximum servility with the maximum of solipsism, that it is both the result and the cause of dangerous sexual repression, and that it is ultimately grounded on wish-thinking." ~Christopher Hitchens, god is not Great
PM me your email address to join the Slack chat! I'll give you a taco(or five) if you join! --->There's an app and everything!<---
Posts: 30726
Threads: 2123
Joined: May 24, 2012
Reputation:
71
RE: NFL 2016 Pick'em League!
January 8, 2017 at 9:27 pm
(January 8, 2017 at 9:14 pm)SteelCurtain Wrote: The #1 seed has won 23 of the 50 super bowls so far, and 46 #1 seeds have made it to the Super Bowl.
Being the #1 seed in itself says something about the team, so whether they win because of home field advantage is hard to judge. They were the best team in their respective divisions for a reason. But teams historically have a better record at home than away, so it does play a factor.
http://www.espn.com/blog/playbook/visual...ds-succeed
ETA: The last three seasons weren't included on the above infographic, but all three seasons saw two #1 seeds meeting in the Super Bowl, with a #1 seed obviously winning.
That is what I thought the entire time. It is only a slight help when you do the math, but ultimately a crap shoot. Heck even 9-7 teams have gone on to win the Superbowl all be it rare.
Which makes me wonder if my Dallas Patriots pick for the Supebowl will pan out. Personally I only picked them because both are tough to play at home, but at the same time I hope I am wrong. I would rather see two other teams go.
Posts: 2985
Threads: 29
Joined: October 26, 2014
Reputation:
31
RE: NFL 2016 Pick'em League!
January 8, 2017 at 9:35 pm
(January 8, 2017 at 8:59 pm)SteelCurtain Wrote: As they throw yet another pick and extend the Packers winning streak to 7.
I hope the Pack destroys Dallas next week.
Oh, they will... they will.......
How will we know, when the morning comes, we are still human? - 2D
Don't worry, my friend. If this be the end, then so shall it be.
Posts: 15351
Threads: 118
Joined: January 13, 2014
Reputation:
117
RE: NFL 2016 Pick'em League!
January 8, 2017 at 9:56 pm
(January 8, 2017 at 9:27 pm)Brian37 Wrote: (January 8, 2017 at 9:14 pm)SteelCurtain Wrote: The #1 seed has won 23 of the 50 super bowls so far, and 46 #1 seeds have made it to the Super Bowl.
Being the #1 seed in itself says something about the team, so whether they win because of home field advantage is hard to judge. They were the best team in their respective divisions for a reason. But teams historically have a better record at home than away, so it does play a factor.
http://www.espn.com/blog/playbook/visual...ds-succeed
ETA: The last three seasons weren't included on the above infographic, but all three seasons saw two #1 seeds meeting in the Super Bowl, with a #1 seed obviously winning.
That is what I thought the entire time. It is only a slight help when you do the math, but ultimately a crap shoot. Heck even 9-7 teams have gone on to win the Superbowl all be it rare.
Which makes me wonder if my Dallas Patriots pick for the Supebowl will pan out. Personally I only picked them because both are tough to play at home, but at the same time I hope I am wrong. I would rather see two other teams go.
But it clearly is a massive help. There are six seeds. If it made no difference, it would be evenly distributed. If it were evenly distributed, they would have only won 8 or 9. The other 27 winners are split five ways into mostly #2 seeds, a couple #3 seeds, and and a handful of lower seeds. Several times when the #2 seed made it, they had home field throughout because of the #1 seed losing in the divisional round.
This is really solid evidence that home field advantage is a help. Shit, the Steelers proved how valuable home field can be today. They got critical, scoring drive conversions on offsides penalties not once but twice in the game today because of crowd noise and hard counts. I thought it was pretty evident that those numbers prove that home field advantage is huge in football.
"There remain four irreducible objections to religious faith: that it wholly misrepresents the origins of man and the cosmos, that because of this original error it manages to combine the maximum servility with the maximum of solipsism, that it is both the result and the cause of dangerous sexual repression, and that it is ultimately grounded on wish-thinking." ~Christopher Hitchens, god is not Great
PM me your email address to join the Slack chat! I'll give you a taco(or five) if you join! --->There's an app and everything!<---
Posts: 2985
Threads: 29
Joined: October 26, 2014
Reputation:
31
RE: NFL 2016 Pick'em League!
January 9, 2017 at 10:49 am
Patriots open as 14.5 point favorites over the Texans; early money pushes the line to 16!
How will we know, when the morning comes, we are still human? - 2D
Don't worry, my friend. If this be the end, then so shall it be.
Posts: 30726
Threads: 2123
Joined: May 24, 2012
Reputation:
71
RE: NFL 2016 Pick'em League!
January 10, 2017 at 5:27 pm
(January 8, 2017 at 9:11 pm)Crossless1 Wrote: (January 8, 2017 at 8:59 pm)SteelCurtain Wrote: As they throw yet another pick and extend the Packers winning streak to 7.
I hope the Pack destroys Dallas next week.
Me too.
I picked the Packers to go on to beat Dallas and it just now occurred to me that my hatred of the Cowboys is such that I picked an underdog pretty much out of hopeful spite.
If this year's SB comes down to the fucking Cowboys and the Patriots, I might just skip the whole thing and do something more constructive -- like expose myself at the dog park.
Why not, if Trump can walk into dressing rooms, if you do that you can run for president. HE HE HE, I almost choked on my spit reading this. I agree I am not really excited if Dallas and New England end up there. I am sure their fans will like it, but NE is a dynasty and Dallas, well, everyone outside Dallas hates them.
Posts: 29833
Threads: 116
Joined: February 22, 2011
Reputation:
159
RE: NFL 2016 Pick'em League!
January 10, 2017 at 7:11 pm
I'm not excited about it, but I don't hate either Dallas or New England. I don't have a favorite in this race.
I'm just glad to have gone 4 for 4 so far. But this weekend things get real. The Pack looked strong. I wonder how far they'll go.
Posts: 7568
Threads: 20
Joined: July 26, 2013
Reputation:
54
RE: NFL 2016 Pick'em League!
January 11, 2017 at 7:17 am
(January 10, 2017 at 7:11 pm)Jörmungandr Wrote: I'm not excited about it, but I don't hate either Dallas or New England. I don't have a favorite in this race.
I'm just glad to have gone 4 for 4 so far. But this weekend things get real. The Pack looked strong. I wonder how far they'll go.
I picked the Packers to go on to the Superbowl and lose to the Patriots. I figured the Cowboys were the 'sensible' pick and I needed a good spoiler to cut against the conventional wisdom.
We'll see.
Posts: 29833
Threads: 116
Joined: February 22, 2011
Reputation:
159
RE: NFL 2016 Pick'em League!
January 11, 2017 at 11:49 pm
It would be interesting to see the Pack go all the way, but in no measure would I consider them to be the best team in the league. Their defense is average, they've got hardly any running game, and even their passing game has been somewhat off lately. Maybe they'd make it to the Super Bowl, but if they do, I think it would be a fluke.
|