Anecdotal Evidence

[The Grand Nudger]

Some of our most important life decisions are based on anecdotal evidence rather than science.

....perhaps in your life, or in some others...and that might explain the vast amounts of failure people experience in their lives?

I'm not really sure, though, what life decisions you could be referring to.  Home, job, spouse, children?  I didn't make any of these decisions based upon anecdotal evidence...that would be foolish and irresponsible, at best.  Something tells me that this manufactured divide serves no purpose other than to excuse a foolish decision to worship fairies on the assumption of their historicity, and the equally foolish notion that this is an important life decision.

[John V]

I'm not really sure, though, what life decisions you could be referring to.  Home, job, spouse, children?  I didn't make any of these decisions based upon anecdotal evidence...that would be foolish and irresponsible, at best.

How did you make them? It could just be that I'm using "anecdotal evidence" more broadly than you are. It's very common to talk to friends in different areas before deciding where to buy a home, or to talk to people in different fields before choosing a college major or a job, etc. I don't see that doing so is "foolish and irresponsible."

[The Grand Nudger]

It would be foolish and irresponsible to base your decision on those conversations. Do you not check the average income in the area, go and actually -see- the place, tour houses before purchase, check salary ranges, line up interviews, get the job, check the college stats and assign metrics?

Or do you take the realtors word over the phone? Start work with no employment terms because the boss said it was superfun and interesting? Let the booster talk you into their program?

It may be common to have those conversations, but I hope it's not common to base important life decisions on their contents, as you claimed it was.

[John V]

It would be foolish and irresponsible to base your decision on those conversations.

Why? If someone who's like you says it's a nice, safe and affordable place to live, that carries a lot of weight with many people. Why shouldn't it?

Do you not check the average income in the area,

Most people probably don't.

go and actually -see- the place, tour houses before purchase,

Sure. Now you're going into a false dichotomy. Surely you didn't think that I meant it's reasonable to buy a house sight unseen because you heard from a friend that the area is nice.    The friend's recommendation is an important consideration though.

check salary ranges,

That's useful, but it doesn't tell you what it's like to actually work in the field.

line up interviews, get the job,

You need to go through interviews and get the job to work in an industry regardless of your methods for selecting the industry in the first place. You're just throwing crap at the wall with these points.

Or do you take the realtors word over the phone?  Start work with no employment terms because the boss said it was superfun and interesting?  Let the booster talk you into their program?

Obviously you'd assign less weight to testimony from someone with a personal and perhaps adverse interest in the decision. This is more black-and-white thinking. Anecdotal evidence varies in quality. If a realtor says it's a low-crime neighborhood and a friend who lives there says they've been robbed twice in the last 3 months, you'll give greater weight to the friend. This is pretty obvious stuff that we do all the time.

[The Grand Nudger]

Why? If someone who's like you says it's a nice, safe and affordable place to live, that carries a lot of weight with many people. Why shouldn't it?

If you need me to explain why you should check the facts of each of those things rather than taking a persons word for it when researching a home.....you have no business making such decisions.

Most people probably don't.

Most fools.

Sure. Now you're going into a false dichotomy. Surely you didn't think that I meant it's reasonable to buy a house sight unseen because you heard from a friend that the area is nice.    The friend's recommendation is an important consideration though.

You;re the only one presenting dichotomies, false or otherwise, when you reference anecdote vs x.  I'm simply injecting some common sense into your anecdote nonsense.  

That's useful, but it doesn't tell you what it's like to actually work in the field.

Sure wont, and?  How might you best check that...listen to people tell stories........?  Ever notice that two people with the same job..one hates it, one loves it..and dependng on who you're listening to it can sound awesome or shitty?  Yet another fail for anecdotal evidence.

You need to go through interviews and get the job to work in an industry regardless of your methods for selecting the industry in the first place. You're just throwing crap at the wall with these points.

-crap that you omitted out of convenience, because you felt compelled to argue for foolishness.

Obviously you'd assign less weight to testimony from someone with a personal and perhaps adverse interest in the decision. This is more black-and-white thinking. Anecdotal evidence varies in quality. If a realtor says it's a low-crime neighborhood and a friend who lives there says they've been robbed twice in the last 3 months, you'll give greater weight to the friend. This is pretty obvious stuff that we do all the time.

Maybe you should just check the stats, incidence of robbery is public record.....and tell your friend to stop dealing out of his house?

Is this it, are these the examples of how some of our most important life decisions are based on anecdotal evidence? I don't see it. Each example is an example of why -not- to base your decisions on anecdotal evidence. I'm gonna go ahead and keep basing my important life decisions on something other than the stories people tell, as much as I love my friends....important life decisions, are....important. What;s amusing about your response..is that even in addressing the weight opf anecdote..you offered non-anecdotal metrics. A friend -like you-. Obviously it's your observed similarity, and not the anecdote itself...that makes any given anecdote a friend tells you compelling. I;m guessing you're also leaning on the notion that your friend isn't embellishing or lying, too..something you will have had ample opportunity to observe and test over time. It's almost as if the weight of anecdotal evidence is in direct proportion to how much supporting non-anecdotal evidence exists.....and that you're not the kind of fool that makes important life decisions based upon anecdotes....

[John V]

Sure wont, and?  How might you best check that...listen to people tell stories........?  Ever notice that two people with the same job..one hates it, one loves it..and dependng on who you're listening to it can sound awesome or shitty?  Yet another fail for anecdotal evidence.

Yep, and I would take into account each person's general disposition when considering their accounts. You ask the question, How might you best check that? but then give no answer yourself. How do you know that people ion a neighborhood are friendly or not? How do you know that you'll be happy with a particular person as your spouse, or that you'll be happier with or without children, or how many you should have?

Again, you're arguing a fallacy, pretending that I'm saying that available facts should be ignored for anecdotal evidence. From the start my position has been that anecdotal evidence is good for situations in which there isn't anything approaching fact available.

[The Grand Nudger]

Learn what the word fallacy means before you attempt to leverage it.  It;s not a term for when the other guy catches you bullshitting.

You claimed, and I quoted you as claiming it..that some of our most important life decisions are based upon anecdotal evidence.  It turns out that they aren't...that even your assessment of included anecdotes is based upon empirical evidence, and that even -you- don't think these decisions are or should be based upon anecdotal evidence. Further, none of the examples you gave are examples of things where there is or would be no other available evidence. I think you'd have as much trouble coming up with an example of that as you've had coming up with examples of important life decisions based upon anecdotal evidence.

So why claim it in the first place?

[The Grand Nudger]

-you know...There was a simpler way, rather than letting that turd of a claim hang...it was to provide an example of an important life decision of your own that you made based upon anecdote.   OFC, now, I couldn't assign that anecdote about anecdotes much weight, according to your metrics...since you have a vested interest in the claim and I have prior knowledge of your general disposition.

[John V]

You ask the question, How might you best check that? but then give no answer yourself. How do you know that people ion a neighborhood are friendly or not? How do you know that you'll be happy with a particular person as your spouse, or that you'll be happier with or without children, or how many you should have?

[John V]

-you know...There was a simpler way, rather than letting that turd of a claim hang...it was to provide an example of an important life decision of your own that you made based upon anecdote.   OFC, now, I couldn't assign that anecdote about anecdotes much weight, according to your metrics...since you have a vested interest in the claim.

I did - deciding to buy a home in a certain neighborhood - but I put it in general terms rather than specifically applying it to myself. At the time I was deciding, my assistant at work lived less than a block from the home I was looking at. She told me that the neighborhood was safe and the residents were mostly friendly but many were somewhat nosy, and there wasn't any problem with noise at night. That influenced the decision. Why shouldn't it? It's hardly foolish and irresponsible.