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Anecdotal Evidence
RE: Anecdotal Evidence
(November 29, 2016 at 11:41 am)bennyboy Wrote:



I was listening to a podcasts the other day, which seems relevant to this conversation. The caller was a geocentrist, and further believed that the earth was stationary (does not rotate on an axis). The hosts quickly pointed out, the observations made, which easily disprove this including the observation from space of the earths rotation, and the fact that satellites in a synchronous orbit need to have their time calibrated for the difference in speed because of their greater orbit.

The caller immediately dismissed this; similarly to what I see here, as anecdotes, and having to believe what others tell you. Now to me, he is denying the evidence, based on what their a priori knowledge states (I would say that this man, couldn't be reasoned with). Do you think that he was correct in his method?
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RE: Anecdotal Evidence
(December 4, 2016 at 2:28 pm)RoadRunner79 Wrote: I was listening to a podcasts the other day, which seems relevant to this conversation.  The caller was a geocentrist, and further believed that the earth was stationary (does not rotate on an axis).  The hosts quickly pointed out, the observations made, which easily disprove this including the observation from space of the earths rotation, and the fact that satellites in a synchronous orbit need to have their time calibrated for the difference in speed  because of their greater orbit.

The caller immediately dismissed this; similarly to what I see here, as anecdotes, and having to believe what others tell you.  Now to me, he is denying the evidence, based on what their a priori knowledge states (I would say that this man, couldn't be reasoned with).  Do you think that he was correct in his method?

Hmmm.

In relativistic terms, the man is right. From the perspective of someone on Earth, everything revolves around it. . . but in extraordinarily complex ways, mathematically speaking. And we still think this way-- for example, we still have charts for when the sun "rises" at different places at different times of year. However, if he ever wants to do space travel, he's going to find the math totally unworkable. He will never be able to generalize his observations into simple, pragmatic principles, and will instead be stuck in a world of crazy charts and graphs which try desperately to map out the details of myriad bodies as they dance around the Earth.

When the evidence drives the conclusions, one is in my opinion forming conclusions correctly. When the evidence does not FIT the conclusions, especially new evidence, one must adapt the conclusions. Any time someone must cover his ears and say "La la la la, I can't hear you!" in order to maintain his world view, then he has decided that the efficiency of maintaining his current world view (no heart searching, no letting go of unworkable ideas, etc.) is more important than truth.
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RE: Anecdotal Evidence
(December 4, 2016 at 2:28 pm)RoadRunner79 Wrote: I was listening to a podcasts the other day, which seems relevant to this conversation.  The caller was a geocentrist, and further believed that the earth was stationary (does not rotate on an axis).  The hosts quickly pointed out, the observations made, which easily disprove this including the observation from space of the earths rotation, and the fact that satellites in a synchronous orbit need to have their time calibrated for the difference in speed  because of their greater orbit.

The caller immediately dismissed this; similarly to what I see here, as anecdotes, and having to believe what others tell you.  Now to me, he is denying the evidence, based on what their a priori knowledge states (I would say that this man, couldn't be reasoned with).  Do you think that he was correct in his method?

The data is there to be checked out, the mathematical proofs and experiments are freely available.
I find this mans rejection of facts presented more like the theist mind set, in that the facts do not match their beliefs so they reject the facts.



You can fix ignorance, you can't fix stupid.

Tinkety Tonk and down with the Nazis.




 








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RE: Anecdotal Evidence
"You know, the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common. They don't alter their views to fit the facts; they alter the facts to fit the views. Which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering."
At the age of five, Skagra decided emphatically that God did not exist.  This revelation tends to make most people in the universe who have it react in one of two ways - with relief or with despair.  Only Skagra responded to it by thinking, 'Wait a second.  That means there's a situation vacant.'
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RE: Anecdotal Evidence
I once knew someone for whom anecdotal evidence sufficed quite nicely, or so he said.
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RE: Anecdotal Evidence
(December 4, 2016 at 2:28 pm)RoadRunner79 Wrote: I was listening to a podcasts the other day, which seems relevant to this conversation.  The caller was a geocentrist, and further believed that the earth was stationary (does not rotate on an axis).  The hosts quickly pointed out, the observations made, which easily disprove this including the observation from space of the earths rotation, and the fact that satellites in a synchronous orbit need to have their time calibrated for the difference in speed  because of their greater orbit.

The caller immediately dismissed this; similarly to what I see here, as anecdotes, and having to believe what others tell you.  Now to me, he is denying the evidence, based on what their a priori knowledge states (I would say that this man, couldn't be reasoned with).  Do you think that he was correct in his method?

Of course he was not using the correct method.

He went into the discussions with a presupposition, then refused to accept any demonstrable evidence that disagreed with his presup. And only accepted evidence that could be spun into his presup.

Sounds pretty familiar, doesn't it?

You'd believe if you just opened your heart" is a terrible argument for religion. It's basically saying, "If you bias yourself enough, you can convince yourself that this is true." If religion were true, people wouldn't need faith to believe it -- it would be supported by good evidence.
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RE: Anecdotal Evidence
(December 5, 2016 at 12:01 pm)Whateverist Wrote: I once knew someone for whom anecdotal evidence sufficed quite nicely, or so he said.

No you didn't.  You're making that up! Now. . . if you had support for that assertion from a 2000 year-old manuscript, then I might admit you were on to something.
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RE: Anecdotal Evidence
(December 5, 2016 at 7:48 pm)bennyboy Wrote:
(December 5, 2016 at 12:01 pm)Whateverist Wrote: I once knew someone for whom anecdotal evidence sufficed quite nicely, or so he said.

No you didn't.  You're making that up!  Now. . . if you had support for that assertion from a 2000 year-old manuscript, then I might admit you were on to something.


Sad  Sorry, I'm obviously underprepared to have made such a statement.
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RE: Anecdotal Evidence
(December 4, 2016 at 2:28 pm)RoadRunner79 Wrote:
(November 29, 2016 at 11:41 am)bennyboy Wrote:



I was listening to a podcasts the other day, which seems relevant to this conversation.  The caller was a geocentrist, and further believed that the earth was stationary (does not rotate on an axis).  The hosts quickly pointed out, the observations made, which easily disprove this including the observation from space of the earths rotation, and the fact that satellites in a synchronous orbit need to have their time calibrated for the difference in speed  because of their greater orbit.

The caller immediately dismissed this; similarly to what I see here, as anecdotes, and having to believe what others tell you.  Now to me, he is denying the evidence, based on what their a priori knowledge states (I would say that this man, couldn't be reasoned with).  Do you think that he was correct in his method?

Quote:I have only to appeal to the test of Occam's razor to support my point here. Named after William of Occam, a 14th century English logician who first enunciated it as a valid rule of evidence, Occam's razor states that when there exist two or more explanations for an occurrence, especially an unusual one, the least incredible one is most likely to be the right one. So in this matter which is more likely? Did a prophet actually foresee the reign of a king and call him by his name 300 years before he was even born, or did the writer of 1 Kings, after the fact, merely write this "prophecy" into his historical narrative? There is no doubt which of the two explanations is the more likely one, so until Bible fundamentalists can prove beyond all reasonable doubt that the more likely explanation could not have occurred, they do not have any proof at all in this "prophecy" that God inspired the writing of the Bible.

http://infidels.org/library/modern/farre...phecy.html

In a similar vein, the appeal to anecdote must be measured against Occam's razor. If a claim appears unrealistic or extraordinary given the background knowledge of the case, then it perhaps should be disbelieved in favor of the more plausible explanations of lie, mistake, or error. The caller's method was flawed because he was not making a reasonable appeal to an examination of the weight of evidence of scientist's testimony but simply cleaving to a predetermined supposition that all such testimony was unreliable.
[Image: extraordinarywoo-sig.jpg]
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RE: Anecdotal Evidence
(December 5, 2016 at 10:31 am)downbeatplumb Wrote:
(December 4, 2016 at 2:28 pm)RoadRunner79 Wrote: I was listening to a podcasts the other day, which seems relevant to this conversation.  The caller was a geocentrist, and further believed that the earth was stationary (does not rotate on an axis).  The hosts quickly pointed out, the observations made, which easily disprove this including the observation from space of the earths rotation, and the fact that satellites in a synchronous orbit need to have their time calibrated for the difference in speed  because of their greater orbit.

The caller immediately dismissed this; similarly to what I see here, as anecdotes, and having to believe what others tell you.  Now to me, he is denying the evidence, based on what their a priori knowledge states (I would say that this man, couldn't be reasoned with).  Do you think that he was correct in his method?

The data is there to be checked out, the mathematical proofs and experiments are freely available.
I find this mans rejection of facts presented more like the theist mind set, in that the facts do not match their beliefs so they reject the facts.

Perhaps I wasn't clear in my brief description of this particular call, but I would not be surprised to find out, that NASA is not knocking down this guys door.

As to you second comment; at this point in the conversation, all I can say, is that I am in awe of the transfer you are attempting to make; and the guile in the correlation.

(December 6, 2016 at 8:19 am)Jörmungandr Wrote:
(December 4, 2016 at 2:28 pm)RoadRunner79 Wrote: I was listening to a podcasts the other day, which seems relevant to this conversation.  The caller was a geocentrist, and further believed that the earth was stationary (does not rotate on an axis).  The hosts quickly pointed out, the observations made, which easily disprove this including the observation from space of the earths rotation, and the fact that satellites in a synchronous orbit need to have their time calibrated for the difference in speed  because of their greater orbit.

The caller immediately dismissed this; similarly to what I see here, as anecdotes, and having to believe what others tell you.  Now to me, he is denying the evidence, based on what their a priori knowledge states (I would say that this man, couldn't be reasoned with).  Do you think that he was correct in his method?

Quote:I have only to appeal to the test of Occam's razor to support my point here. Named after William of Occam, a 14th century English logician who first enunciated it as a valid rule of evidence, Occam's razor states that when there exist two or more explanations for an occurrence, especially an unusual one, the least incredible one is most likely to be the right one. So in this matter which is more likely? Did a prophet actually foresee the reign of a king and call him by his name 300 years before he was even born, or did the writer of 1 Kings, after the fact, merely write this "prophecy" into his historical narrative? There is no doubt which of the two explanations is the more likely one, so until Bible fundamentalists can prove beyond all reasonable doubt that the more likely explanation could not have occurred, they do not have any proof at all in this "prophecy" that God inspired the writing of the Bible.

http://infidels.org/library/modern/farre...phecy.html

In a similar vein, the appeal to anecdote must be measured against Occam's razor.  If a claim appears unrealistic or extraordinary given the background knowledge of the case, then it perhaps should be disbelieved in favor of the more plausible explanations of lie, mistake, or error.  The caller's method was flawed because he was not making a reasonable appeal to an examination of the weight of evidence of scientist's testimony but simply cleaving to a predetermined supposition that all such testimony was unreliable.

I believe this is an error in use, of the Occam's Razor.  The difficulty, and I believe what was shown in this particular call, is that background knowledge varies (it's subjective), and previous beliefs should not be the measuring stick of new evidence (especially if you are going to insert lying, mistake, or delusional and the like).   This is good, if you want to hold to the your beliefs and ignore evidence (but then it would seem difficult or at least hypocritical to criticize another for doing the same thing).

According to Wikipedia:
Quote:Occam's Razor: The principle can be interpreted as stating Among competing hypotheses, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. 

You may also find simpler in place of fewest assumptions, but I find that this is often misunderstood, in that simpler is better, even if it does not account for all the facts.   Therefore, I do prefer the above quote from WikiP.

The most similar claim made by Occam himself was
Quote:one can cite statements such as Numquam ponenda est pluralitas sine necessitate [Plurality must never be posited without necessity]

or don't add more than what is needed.  I do find that this shows where the simpler and fewest assumptions terms come into the picture in the above definitions.  

I could see this as applying, in that, as you add collaborating testimony, then it is required to make more assumptions, in adding lying, mistaken, or in error.  And I would agree, that this does often apply the testimony of science.   Although I may caution against merely assuming this, and fore going checking out what others say, simply because someone make a claim of science.  

The following site, includes a video of the Foucault Pendulum.   It is a very cool demonstration of the rotation of the Earth.  However, I think that one who wishes to be hyperskeptical could still easily ignore the evidence and the testimony.   Even in watching a video, one needs to place some trust, in that what is said to be occurring actually is.   Personally I think that a witness of what was tested and observed is enough, but if not, then the burden of proof would be on the one making the claim to demonstrate this personally for them.
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