Yes. Sadly We All Know The Next Phony War Is Coming

[Pat Mustard]

China or Iran is my prediction.

Iran. War with China would harm too many of Trump's businesses which rely on Chinese manufactures.

Frankly a war with Iran will be not much better for the businesses Trump rents his name to, for two reasons, the US going to war with Iran will involve the US in a quagmire that'll be Iran/Afghanistan/Vietnam rolled into one, and increased by an exponential of ten; and second, a lot of the businesses he whores his name to are in countries that Iran can and will probably fuck over early in such a war.

[Kosh]

From the other side of that same coin, bewteen the US and Hong Kong (another major exporter to the US) nearly a third of China's exports are accounted for.  Behind those two...Japan, another key US ally and trade partner...behind that.....S. Korea.   Seeing a pattern?  What possible impetus could china's government have in allowing a war between the US and China to take place?  

It will take more than sabre rattling from the Trump administration to start that war.  It would take abject incompetence at every level of government in each respective players country, and it would do nothing but negatively impact every single one of them regardless of who, in the minds of any armchair or actual strategist, "won".

Technically, China does not export to Hong Kong...  HK being part of China n'all.  

Looking at previous experiments in world war, analysis of potential negative impact didn't stop them starting.

Abject incompetence is a constant, don't look to that as an indicator ... look for internal power-plays.  That will be the trigger.  Putin has a lock down on power so nothing to see there.  Chinese internal manoeuvring gave us the Umbrella Revolution... if a repeat of that coincides with an internal power-play within the US administration ... expect fireworks.

Personally, I'm hoping to have drunk myself into oblivion before Bannon's prediction comes true.

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You mean self fulfilling prophecy...